Demo data

USD/EUR forecast history

Every published USD/EUR forecast with its original probabilities and, once the target date has passed, the outcome and score.

Live forecasts

Threshold
1% — see every threshold 5% — see every threshold 10% — see every threshold 50% — see every threshold

Live forward forecasts are published before their target date and stored unchanged. 2 have reached their target and were scored; 4 are awaiting their target dates. Every threshold is listed for each target.

Published USD/EUR forecasts: original Down / Within / Up probabilities, outcome and Brier score
Target date Issued · lead time Reference Threshold Down / Within / Up Actual return Outcome Brier Link
30 Apr 2027 31 Oct 2026 · 181 days 0.8621 ±1% 40% / 11% / 49% Awaiting target Pending outcome Not scored View the 30 Apr 2027 forecast
30 Apr 2027 31 Oct 2026 · 181 days 0.8621 ±5% 20% / 52% / 28% Awaiting target Pending outcome Not scored View the 30 Apr 2027 forecast
30 Apr 2027 31 Oct 2026 · 181 days 0.8621 ±10% 7% / 81% / 12% Awaiting target Pending outcome Not scored View the 30 Apr 2027 forecast
30 Apr 2027 31 Oct 2026 · 181 days 0.8621 ±50% <0.1% / >99.9% / <0.1% Awaiting target Pending outcome Not scored View the 30 Apr 2027 forecast
31 Jan 2027 31 Oct 2026 · 92 days 0.8621 ±1% 42% / 16% / 42% Awaiting target Pending outcome Not scored View the 31 Jan 2027 forecast
31 Jan 2027 31 Oct 2026 · 92 days 0.8621 ±5% 16% / 67% / 17% Awaiting target Pending outcome Not scored View the 31 Jan 2027 forecast
31 Jan 2027 31 Oct 2026 · 92 days 0.8621 ±10% 3% / 92% / 5% Awaiting target Pending outcome Not scored View the 31 Jan 2027 forecast
31 Jan 2027 31 Oct 2026 · 92 days 0.8621 ±50% <0.1% / >99.9% / <0.1% Awaiting target Pending outcome Not scored View the 31 Jan 2027 forecast
31 Dec 2026 31 Oct 2026 · 61 days 0.8621 ±1% 39% / 20% / 41% Awaiting target Pending outcome Not scored View the 31 Dec 2026 forecast
31 Dec 2026 31 Oct 2026 · 61 days 0.8621 ±5% 11% / 76% / 13% Awaiting target Pending outcome Not scored View the 31 Dec 2026 forecast
31 Dec 2026 31 Oct 2026 · 61 days 0.8621 ±10% 2% / 95% / 3% Awaiting target Pending outcome Not scored View the 31 Dec 2026 forecast
31 Dec 2026 31 Oct 2026 · 61 days 0.8621 ±50% <0.1% / >99.9% / <0.1% Awaiting target Pending outcome Not scored View the 31 Dec 2026 forecast
30 Nov 2026 31 Oct 2026 · 30 days 0.8621 ±1% 37% / 27% / 36% Awaiting target Pending outcome Not scored View the 30 Nov 2026 forecast
30 Nov 2026 31 Oct 2026 · 30 days 0.8621 ±5% 6% / 88% / 6% Awaiting target Pending outcome Not scored View the 30 Nov 2026 forecast
30 Nov 2026 31 Oct 2026 · 30 days 0.8621 ±10% 0.4% / 98.6% / 1.0% Awaiting target Pending outcome Not scored View the 30 Nov 2026 forecast
30 Nov 2026 31 Oct 2026 · 30 days 0.8621 ±50% <0.1% / 100.0% / 0.0% Awaiting target Pending outcome Not scored View the 30 Nov 2026 forecast
30 Sep 2026 31 Jul 2026 · 61 days 0.8711 ±1% 44% / 20% / 36% +0.22% Between −1% and +1% 0.975 View the 30 Sep 2026 forecast
30 Sep 2026 31 Jul 2026 · 61 days 0.8711 ±5% 13% / 76% / 11% +0.22% Between −5% and +5% 0.088 View the 30 Sep 2026 forecast
30 Sep 2026 31 Jul 2026 · 61 days 0.8711 ±10% 2% / 95% / 3% +0.22% Between −10% and +10% 0.003 View the 30 Sep 2026 forecast
30 Sep 2026 31 Jul 2026 · 61 days 0.8711 ±50% 0.0% / >99.9% / <0.1% +0.22% Between −50% and +50% 0.000 View the 30 Sep 2026 forecast
31 Aug 2026 31 Jul 2026 · 31 days 0.8711 ±1% 42% / 27% / 31% −1.12% Down 1% or more 0.497 View the 31 Aug 2026 forecast
31 Aug 2026 31 Jul 2026 · 31 days 0.8711 ±5% 7% / 88% / 5% −1.12% Between −5% and +5% 0.022 View the 31 Aug 2026 forecast
31 Aug 2026 31 Jul 2026 · 31 days 0.8711 ±10% 0.5% / 98.7% / 0.8% −1.12% Between −10% and +10% 0.000 View the 31 Aug 2026 forecast
31 Aug 2026 31 Jul 2026 · 31 days 0.8711 ±50% 0.0% / >99.9% / <0.1% −1.12% Between −50% and +50% 0.000 View the 31 Aug 2026 forecast

Only the scored version of each target is listed. Other versions are on each forecast page. Brier scores use the AI average.

How scores work

Brier score over three outcomes, from 0 (perfect) to 2. Lower is better.

Targets of one pair overlap in time and share the same price moves, so their results are correlated, not independent samples. A handful of settled forecasts says little about skill.

Forecast track record

Inverse currency pairs

EUR/USD and USD/EUR settle on the same observations, so their histories are not independent samples of performance.

EUR/USD overview

USD/EUR

Pair overview 30 Sep 2026 outcome How forecasts are scored