EUR/USD exchange rate forecast
EUR/USD — US dollars per euro
Probability estimates for where the EUR/USD rate will be on specific future dates, from two AI models, a statistical reference and matching prediction markets where they exist.
View USD/EUR — euros per US dollar
Choose a target date
- End of this month · 31 Oct 2026Not published: no new ECB fixing before this date
- End of next month · 30 Nov 202630 days ahead
- End of year · 31 Dec 202661 days ahead
- 3 months (month-end) · 31 Jan 202792 days ahead
- 6 months (month-end) · 30 Apr 2027181 days ahead
- 12 months (month-end) · 31 Oct 2027Scheduled, not yet generated
Every preset is a month-end date. The date shown is the one the forecast is about.
AI average — uncalibrated · ±1% · ±5% · ±10% · ±50%
Price on 31 Jan 2027
- Down 1% or more
- 42%
- 1.1484 or lower
- Between ±1%
- 16%
- 1.1484 to 1.1716
- Up 1% or more
- 42%
- 1.1716 or higher
- Down 5% or more
- 15%
- 1.1020 or lower
- Between ±5%
- 68%
- 1.1020 to 1.2180
- Up 5% or more
- 17%
- 1.2180 or higher
- Down 10% or more
- 3%
- 1.0440 or lower
- Between ±10%
- 93%
- 1.0440 to 1.2760
- Up 10% or more
- 4%
- 1.2760 or higher
- Down 50% or more
- <0.1%
- 0.5800 or lower
- Between ±50%
- >99.9%
- 0.5800 to 1.7400
- Up 50% or more
- <0.1%
- 1.7400 or higher
Default threshold ±1% for currency pairs. The forecast page has all four thresholds, source comparison and evidence.
Open the forecast for 31 Jan 2027/forex/eur-usd/forecast/2027-01-31/
| Threshold | Down | Within | Up |
|---|---|---|---|
| ±1% | 42% | 16% | 42% |
| ±5% | 15% | 68% | 17% |
| ±10% | 3% | 93% | 4% |
| ±50% | <0.1% | >99.9% | <0.1% |
Published forecast dates
Each date has its own page and address. Shown at ±1%±5%±10%±50%.
-
End of next month
30 Nov 2026
Down 36% · Within 27% · Up 37%
Down 5% · Within 89% · Up 6%
Down 0.2% · Within 99.4% · Up 0.4%
Down <0.1% · Within 100.0% · Up 0.0%
Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC
-
End of year
31 Dec 2026
Down 40% · Within 20% · Up 40%
Down 11% · Within 77% · Up 12%
Down 1% · Within 97% · Up 2%
Down <0.1% · Within >99.9% · Up <0.1%
Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC
-
3 months (month-end)
31 Jan 2027
Down 42% · Within 16% · Up 42%
Down 15% · Within 68% · Up 17%
Down 3% · Within 93% · Up 4%
Down <0.1% · Within >99.9% · Up <0.1%
Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC
-
6 months (month-end)
30 Apr 2027
Down 49% · Within 11% · Up 40%
Down 26% · Within 53% · Up 21%
Down 9% · Within 83% · Up 8%
Down <0.1% · Within >99.9% · Up <0.1%
Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC
End of this month · 31 Oct 2026 — not published: no new ecb fixing before this date.
12 months (month-end) · 31 Oct 2027 — scheduled, not yet generated.
What the models cite for EUR/USD
Recurring drivers across the published dates. Each forecast page lists its own cited evidence.
Source coverage
What is available for EUR/USD right now.
| Source | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | Fresh | All 4 dates |
| Claude | Fresh | All 4 dates |
| Statistical reference | Fresh | Synthetic fixture in this prototype |
| Prediction markets | No matching market | No exact or related contract for any date |
Recent settled forecasts
2 settled so far — far too few to judge skill. Shown at ±1%±5%±10%±50%.
-
30 Sep 2026 Actual −0.22% from 1.1480
Forecast 36% / 20% / 44% · Between −1% and +1% · Brier 0.975
Forecast 9% / 77% / 14% · Between −5% and +5% · Brier 0.083
Forecast 1% / 97% / 2% · Between −10% and +10% · Brier 0.002
Forecast <0.1% / >99.9% / <0.1% · Between −50% and +50% · Brier 0.000
-
31 Aug 2026 Actual +1.13% from 1.1480
Forecast 30% / 27% / 43% · Up 1% or more · Brier 0.494
Forecast 4% / 89% / 7% · Between −5% and +5% · Brier 0.019
Forecast 0.2% / 99.3% / 0.5% · Between −10% and +10% · Brier 0.000
Forecast <0.1% / >99.9% / <0.1% · Between −50% and +50% · Brier 0.000