Methodology
Data sources
What each provider supplies, how often, and on what terms. A public API does not by itself mean unrestricted commercial redistribution; terms marked “review” must be cleared before launch.
| Provider | Supplies | Update frequency | Coverage | Attribution and terms |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | Model probability estimates | Each forecast run | All published pairs and dates | Model named on every estimate. Terms: [review status] |
| Anthropic (Claude) | Model probability estimates | Each forecast run | All published pairs and dates | Model named on every estimate. Terms: [review status] |
| [Crypto price provider] | BTC/USD, ETH/USD and SOL/USD reference and settlement prices | [Frequency] | Crypto pairs | [Licence and attribution — review] |
| European Central Bank | Euro foreign exchange reference rates | Once per TARGET business day, around 16:00 CET | EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/GBP; USD/EUR derived | Credited to the ECB. Published for information purposes only. |
| Polymarket | Contract questions, rules and quotes | Checked at each run | Only contracts that match or relate to a forecast | Linked to the contract. Terms: [review status] |
| Federal Reserve Board; ECB | Scheduled policy meeting dates | As published | Event lists | Each date links to the official calendar |
| Cited publishers | Evidence behind model drivers | Per forecast | Per citation | Title, publisher, date and link on every citation |
- Model estimates name the exact model on every forecast page.
- Reference prices and ECB rates are frozen per forecast version, with their observation time.
- Every cited source shows its title, publisher, date and link.