Probability estimates, not predictions of certainty
A probability says how likely an outcome is judged to be, not that it will happen. An outcome given 20% should still happen about one time in five. The model estimates are labelled uncalibrated until enough settled outcomes exist to test them; see the track record.
Not investment advice
Nothing on this site is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset, and nothing takes your personal circumstances into account. Crypto assets and currencies can move sharply; you can lose money.
Models, markets and data
- Model estimates are generated by OpenAI and Claude from a fixed evidence pack and can be confidently wrong.
- Prediction-market prices reflect fees, liquidity and risk preferences and are not objective odds.
- Reference prices and ECB rates are reference observations, not executable prices.
- Third-party data remains subject to its providers' terms; see data sources.
Demo data
Demo data This site currently shows synthetic fixtures for design and testing. None of its numbers are real forecasts or real outcomes.
Liability
[Liability wording, governing law and operator details — supplied later after legal review]