USD/EUR exchange rate forecast
USD/EUR — euros per US dollar
Probability estimates for where the USD/EUR rate will be on specific future dates, from two AI models, a statistical reference and matching prediction markets where they exist.
View EUR/USD — US dollars per euro · derived from EUR/USD, not an independent forecast
Choose a target date
- End of this month · 31 Oct 2026Not published: no new ECB fixing before this date
- End of next month · 30 Nov 202630 days ahead
- End of year · 31 Dec 202661 days ahead
- 3 months (month-end) · 31 Jan 202792 days ahead
- 6 months (month-end) · 30 Apr 2027181 days ahead
- 12 months (month-end) · 31 Oct 2027Scheduled, not yet generated
Every preset is a month-end date. The date shown is the one the forecast is about.
AI average — uncalibrated · ±1% · ±5% · ±10% · ±50%
Price on 31 Jan 2027
- Down 1% or more
- 42%
- 0.8534 or lower
- Between ±1%
- 16%
- 0.8534 to 0.8707
- Up 1% or more
- 42%
- 0.8707 or higher
- Down 5% or more
- 16%
- 0.8190 or lower
- Between ±5%
- 67%
- 0.8190 to 0.9052
- Up 5% or more
- 17%
- 0.9052 or higher
- Down 10% or more
- 3%
- 0.7759 or lower
- Between ±10%
- 92%
- 0.7759 to 0.9483
- Up 10% or more
- 5%
- 0.9483 or higher
- Down 50% or more
- <0.1%
- 0.4310 or lower
- Between ±50%
- >99.9%
- 0.4310 to 1.2931
- Up 50% or more
- <0.1%
- 1.2931 or higher
Default threshold ±1% for currency pairs. The forecast page has all four thresholds, source comparison and evidence.
Open the forecast for 31 Jan 2027/forex/usd-eur/forecast/2027-01-31/
| Threshold | Down | Within | Up |
|---|---|---|---|
| ±1% | 42% | 16% | 42% |
| ±5% | 16% | 67% | 17% |
| ±10% | 3% | 92% | 5% |
| ±50% | <0.1% | >99.9% | <0.1% |
Published forecast dates
Each date has its own page and address. Shown at ±1%±5%±10%±50%.
-
End of next month
30 Nov 2026
Down 37% · Within 27% · Up 36%
Down 6% · Within 88% · Up 6%
Down 0.4% · Within 98.6% · Up 1.0%
Down <0.1% · Within 100.0% · Up 0.0%
Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC
-
End of year
31 Dec 2026
Down 39% · Within 20% · Up 41%
Down 11% · Within 76% · Up 13%
Down 2% · Within 95% · Up 3%
Down <0.1% · Within >99.9% · Up <0.1%
Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC
-
3 months (month-end)
31 Jan 2027
Down 42% · Within 16% · Up 42%
Down 16% · Within 67% · Up 17%
Down 3% · Within 92% · Up 5%
Down <0.1% · Within >99.9% · Up <0.1%
Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC
-
6 months (month-end)
30 Apr 2027
Down 40% · Within 11% · Up 49%
Down 20% · Within 52% · Up 28%
Down 7% · Within 81% · Up 12%
Down <0.1% · Within >99.9% · Up <0.1%
Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC
End of this month · 31 Oct 2026 — not published: no new ecb fixing before this date.
12 months (month-end) · 31 Oct 2027 — scheduled, not yet generated.
What the models cite for USD/EUR
Recurring drivers across the published dates. Each forecast page lists its own cited evidence.
Source coverage
What is available for USD/EUR right now.
| Source | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | Fresh | All 4 dates |
| Claude | Fresh | All 4 dates |
| Statistical reference | Fresh | Synthetic fixture in this prototype |
| Prediction markets | No matching market | No exact or related contract for any date |
Recent settled forecasts
2 settled so far — far too few to judge skill. Shown at ±1%±5%±10%±50%.
-
30 Sep 2026 Actual +0.22% from 0.8711
Forecast 44% / 20% / 36% · Between −1% and +1% · Brier 0.975
Forecast 13% / 76% / 11% · Between −5% and +5% · Brier 0.088
Forecast 2% / 95% / 3% · Between −10% and +10% · Brier 0.003
Forecast 0.0% / >99.9% / <0.1% · Between −50% and +50% · Brier 0.000
-
31 Aug 2026 Actual −1.12% from 0.8711
Forecast 42% / 27% / 31% · Down 1% or more · Brier 0.497
Forecast 7% / 88% / 5% · Between −5% and +5% · Brier 0.022
Forecast 0.5% / 98.7% / 0.8% · Between −10% and +10% · Brier 0.000
Forecast 0.0% / >99.9% / <0.1% · Between −50% and +50% · Brier 0.000