3-month outlook (month-end)

USD/EUR forecast for 31 Jan 2027

Fresh

Link to this forecast: https://futurenotset.com/forex/usd-eur/forecast/2027-01-31/. This address always means 31 Jan 2027.

Reference rate: 0.8621 euros per US dollar · derived from the ECB EUR/USD reference rate · frozenEUR per US dollar · frozen

Dates and timesHide dates and times

Rate observed: Friday, 30 Oct 2026 · ECB fixing, about 16:00 CET
Forecast published: 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · rate 15 h old
Target: 31 Jan 2027 · settles on the ECB rate for Friday, 29 Jan

Reference rate from 30 Oct. The ECB publishes no reference rates at weekends or on TARGET holidays. 31 Jan 2027 is a Sunday, so the outcome uses the last fixing on or before it, Friday, 29 Jan 2027.

Pair, target date and threshold: USD/EUR31 Jan 2027±1%±5%±10%±50% ChangeDone

Pair

View EUR/USD — US dollars per euro

Movement threshold

1% 5% 10% 50%

1% — see every threshold 5% — see every threshold 10% — see every threshold 50% — see every threshold

Default for currency pairs: 1%

Research estimate AI average · uncalibrated

AI average · uncalibrated Two research runs, by OpenAI and Claude. Each one searches news, central-bank and market data, cites what it used, then estimates. Weighted equally. ECB reference rate for 29 Jan 2027.

±1% from 0.8621 ±5% from 0.8621 ±10% from 0.8621 ±50% from 0.8621

Down 1% or more

42%

0.8534 or lower

Between −1% and +1%

16%

0.8534 to 0.8707

Up 1% or more

42%

0.8707 or higher

Down 1% or more

0.8534 or lower

42%

Between −1% and +1%

0.8534 to 0.8707

16%

Up 1% or more

0.8707 or higher

42%

The most likely of the three outcomes is down 1% or more, at 42%. Down 42% · Within 16% · Up 42% at ±1%.

Down 5% or more

16%

0.8190 or lower

Between −5% and +5%

67%

0.8190 to 0.9052

Up 5% or more

17%

0.9052 or higher

Down 5% or more

0.8190 or lower

16%

Between −5% and +5%

0.8190 to 0.9052

67%

Up 5% or more

0.9052 or higher

17%

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −5% and +5%, at 67%. Down 16% · Within 67% · Up 17% at ±5%.

Down 10% or more

0.7759 or lower

Between −10% and +10%

92%

0.7759 to 0.9483

Up 10% or more

0.9483 or higher

Down 10% or more

0.7759 or lower

Between −10% and +10%

0.7759 to 0.9483

92%

Up 10% or more

0.9483 or higher

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −10% and +10%, at 92%. Down 3% · Within 92% · Up 5% at ±10%.

Down 50% or more

<0.1%

0.4310 or lower

Between −50% and +50%

>99.9%

0.4310 to 1.2931

Up 50% or more

<0.1%

1.2931 or higher

Down 50% or more

0.4310 or lower

<0.1%

Between −50% and +50%

0.4310 to 1.2931

>99.9%

Up 50% or more

1.2931 or higher

<0.1%

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −50% and +50%, at >99.9%. Down <0.1% · Within >99.9% · Up <0.1% at ±50%.

How boundaries are counted

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8534 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8707 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.8534 and 0.8707. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8190 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.9052 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.8190 and 0.9052. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.7759 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.9483 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.7759 and 0.9483. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.4310 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 1.2931 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.4310 and 1.2931. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

The rate on the target date, not whether a level is touched before it. Probability estimates, not guarantees. Methodology and limitations.

USD/EUR · 31 Jan · ±1% Down 42%, within 16%, up 42%

USD/EUR · 31 Jan · ±5% Down 16%, within 67%, up 17%

USD/EUR · 31 Jan · ±10% Down 3%, within 92%, up 5%

USD/EUR · 31 Jan · ±50% Down <0.1%, within >99.9%, up <0.1%

Rate so far and forecast range

USD/EUR since 31 Jul, then where the research estimate puts the rate on 31 Jan 2027.

Middle estimate: 0.8618; Even odds above or below
50% chance between: 0.8316 – 0.8929; 25th to 75th percentile
80% chance between: 0.7983 – 0.9300; 10th to 90th percentile

The forecast is only for 31 Jan 2027, 23:59 UTC; the shading between 30 Oct and 31 Jan is interpolated for readability, not a forecast of the path. Percentiles come from the AI average, spread evenly within each threshold band. The models put 84% of the probability outside ±1%.

Chart data as a table

Forecast percentiles for 31 Jan 2027, 23:59 UTC (AI average)
Percentile	Rate
10th	0.7983
25th	0.8316
Median (50th)	0.8618
75th	0.8929
90th	0.9300

USD/EUR rate history, month-ends and the reference date
Date	Rate
31 Jul 2026	0.8725
31 Aug 2026	0.8613
30 Sep 2026	0.8730
30 Oct 2026	0.8621

Key reasons

The facts and articles both research runs leaned on most, and which way each points for the rate on 31 Jan. Higher means one US dollar buys more euros.

2 point lower
1 to little change
2 point higher

Fed decision on 9 Dec
Higher

Firm US data before the decision could keep US yields high and support the dollar.

Scheduled event · Federal Reserve calendar 7
Narrowing rate gap
Lower

If the Fed cuts faster than the ECB, the rate gap that favours the dollar narrows, which tends to strengthen the euro.

Model inference · source 1 1
Rate history baseline
Little change

Rate history alone puts 20% within ±1%, with 40% down and 40% up: no lean either way.

Statistical reference · synthetic fixture
ECB meeting on 17 Dec
Higher

Soft euro-area data could raise expectations of further ECB easing at or after the meeting.

Scheduled event · ECB meeting calendar 6
[Article headline]
Lower

[One-line takeaway with its own date, for example a published euro-area inflation figure.]

Reported fact · [Publisher], [date] · source 2 2

All reasons and sources How probabilities are calculated

In short

The most likely of the three outcomes is down 1% or more, at 42%. Down 42% · Within 16% · Up 42% at ±1%.

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −5% and +5%, at 67%. Down 16% · Within 67% · Up 17% at ±5%.

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −10% and +10%, at 92%. Down 3% · Within 92% · Up 5% at ±10%.

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −50% and +50%, at >99.9%. Down <0.1% · Within >99.9% · Up <0.1% at ±50%.

These estimates describe the rate at the target date, not whether a level is reached beforehand.

Why these estimates? How probabilities are calculated

All movement thresholds

AI average for the ECB reference rate for Friday, 29 Jan 2027, from the 0.8621 reference. Rates are euros per US dollar. All four thresholds are on this page; choosing one updates the panels above.

AI average probabilities for each movement threshold
ThresholdMove	Down	Within	Up	Selection
±1%	42% Down 1% or more: 0.8534 or lower	16% Between −1% and +1%: 0.8534 to 0.8707	42% Up 1% or more: 0.8707 or higher	Selected Show ±1%
±5%	16% Down 5% or more: 0.8190 or lower	67% Between −5% and +5%: 0.8190 to 0.9052	17% Up 5% or more: 0.9052 or higher	Selected Show ±5%
±10%	3% Down 10% or more: 0.7759 or lower	92% Between −10% and +10%: 0.7759 to 0.9483	5% Up 10% or more: 0.9483 or higher	Selected Show ±10%
±50%	<0.1% Down 50% or more: 0.4310 or lower	>99.9% Between −50% and +50%: 0.4310 to 1.2931	<0.1% Up 50% or more: 1.2931 or higher	Selected Show ±50%

Within ranges exclude both boundaries. Wider thresholds always have a larger Within share: the estimates nest consistently. A 50% move in a major currency pair is extremely unlikely; the estimate is shown rather than hidden so all four thresholds stay comparable. Values shown as “<0.1%” or “>99.9%” are bounds; the underlying values sum to 100%.

Compare sources

Selected threshold ±1%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8621 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 6 percentage points at ±1%.

Selected threshold ±5%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8621 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 6 percentage points at ±5%.

Selected threshold ±10%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8621 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 1 percentage point at ±10%.

Selected threshold ±50%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8621 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude give the same estimates at ±50%.

Down, within and up probabilities by source at the selected threshold
Source	Down	Within	Up	Updated	Coverage	Details
AI average Average · uncalibrated	42%	16%	42%	31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC	Fresh2 of 2 models	Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run	45%	16%	39%	31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC	Fresh4 cited sources	Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run	39%	17%	44%	31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC	Fresh4 cited sources	Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	40%	20%	40%	30 Oct 2026 fixing	FreshECB rate history	Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated	16%	67%	17%	31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC	Fresh2 of 2 models	Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run	19%	65%	16%	31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC	Fresh4 cited sources	Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run	13%	69%	18%	31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC	Fresh4 cited sources	Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	11%	77%	12%	30 Oct 2026 fixing	FreshECB rate history	Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated	3%	92%	5%	31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC	Fresh2 of 2 models	Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run	4%	91%	5%	31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC	Fresh4 cited sources	Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run	3%	92%	5%	31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC	Fresh4 cited sources	Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	1%	97%	2%	30 Oct 2026 fixing	FreshECB rate history	Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated	<0.1%	>99.9%	<0.1%	31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC	Fresh2 of 2 models	Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run	<0.1%	>99.9%	<0.1%	31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC	Fresh4 cited sources	Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run	0.0%	>99.9%	<0.1%	31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC	Fresh4 cited sources	Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	0%	100%	0%	30 Oct 2026 fixing	FreshECB rate history	Details: Statistical reference — method

Prediction markets No matching market No contract on USD/EUR settles near January 2027, and no related contract was found. Checked 31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC.

Source details

AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 4.0% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated

Fresh

Down: 42%
Within: 16%
Up: 42%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run

Fresh

Down: 45%
Within: 16%
Up: 39%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run

Fresh

Down: 39%
Within: 17%
Up: 44%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture

Fresh

Down: 40%
Within: 20%
Up: 40%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 4.0% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on USD/EUR settles near January 2027, and no related contract was found.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated

Fresh

Down: 16%
Within: 67%
Up: 17%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run

Fresh

Down: 19%
Within: 65%
Up: 16%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run

Fresh

Down: 13%
Within: 69%
Up: 18%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture

Fresh

Down: 11%
Within: 77%
Up: 12%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 4.0% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on USD/EUR settles near January 2027, and no related contract was found.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated

Fresh

Down: 3%
Within: 92%
Up: 5%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run

Fresh

Down: 4%
Within: 91%
Up: 5%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run

Fresh

Down: 3%
Within: 92%
Up: 5%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture

Fresh

Down: 1%
Within: 97%
Up: 2%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 4.0% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on USD/EUR settles near January 2027, and no related contract was found.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated

Fresh

Down: <0.1%
Within: >99.9%
Up: <0.1%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run

Fresh

Down: <0.1%
Within: >99.9%
Up: <0.1%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run

Fresh

Down: 0.0%
Within: >99.9%
Up: <0.1%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture

Fresh

Down: 0%
Within: 100%
Up: 0%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 4.0% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on USD/EUR settles near January 2027, and no related contract was found.

Distribution of possible moves

AI average, built from the threshold probabilities and spread evenly within each band. Heights show probability per percentage point.

Down band Within band Up band Selected threshold Reference, 0%

Histogram of the bands listed in the table beside: probability per percentage point for each band between −10% and +10%.

Probability density, % per percentage point

−12%
0.7586 −8%
0.7931 −4%
0.8276 0%
0.8621 +4%
0.8966 +8%
0.9310 +12%
0.9655

−10%
0.7759 0%
0.8621 +10%
0.9483

Change in USD/EUR at the target observation, with the matching rate

Hover a band for its price range and probability. Not drawn: 3% of outcomes below −10% (0.7759) and 5% above +10% (0.9483). The ±50% boundaries (0.4310 and 1.2931) are far outside this axis.

The same distribution as a table
Change	Rate	Prob.	Per point
Below −10%	Below 0.7759	3%	—
−10% to −5%	0.7759–0.8190	13%	2.52
−5% to −1%	0.8190–0.8534	26%	6.54
−1% to +1%	0.8534–0.8707	16%	8.06
+1% to +5%	0.8707–0.9052	25%	6.24
+5% to +10%	0.9052–0.9483	12%	2.34
Above +10%	Above 0.9483	5%	—
Total		100%

Why these estimates?

Directional factors follow the quote (euros per US dollar): “higher” means USD/EUR rises. Each item says whether it is a reported fact or the model’s inference.

What could push USD/EUR higher?

Firm US data Model inference

Strong US data before the 9 Dec FOMC decision could keep US yields high and support the dollar against the euro. 3 7
Weaker euro-area growth Model inference

Soft euro-area activity data could raise expectations of further ECB easing at or after the 17 Dec meeting, weighing on the euro. 4 6

What could push it lower?

Narrowing rate gap Model inference

If the Federal Reserve cuts faster than the ECB, the interest-rate gap that favours the dollar would narrow, which tends to strengthen the euro against the dollar. 1
[Reported fact] Reported fact

[Fact quoted from source 2 with its own date, for example a published inflation figure.] 2

Events before the target date

Scheduled dates come from official calendars. Scenarios are hypothetical and have no date.

Scheduled dates

9 Dec 2026

US Federal Reserve policy decision

FOMC meeting 8–9 Dec; statement at 2:00 p.m. ET. Federal Reserve calendar
Confirmed date
17 Dec 2026

ECB monetary policy meeting

Decision followed by a press conference. ECB meeting calendar
Confirmed date
26–27 Jan 2027

US Federal Reserve meeting

Listed as tentative by third-party calendars; not yet confirmed on the Federal Reserve's own calendar.
Tentative date
29 Jan 2027

Target observation

ECB reference rate for Friday, 29 Jan settles this forecast.
Forecast target
4 Feb 2027

Next ECB monetary policy meeting

After the target date, so it cannot affect this outcome. ECB meeting calendar
After target

Hypothetical scenarios

A sudden global risk-off move that shifts demand toward safe-haven currencies.
Scenario · no date

Prediction-market context

No matching market Related market: none Checked 31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC

No contract on USD/EUR settles near January 2027, and no related contract was found. Market evidence is left out rather than shown as 0%.

Options-implied (risk-neutral) estimates are a different kind of evidence and are not shown in this version. How sources are matched

What this forecast may miss

Moves between fixings. The ECB rate is one daily observation; market rates at other times can differ.
Weekend news. Anything after 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC enters only with a new version.
Calibration. Very few USD/EUR forecasts have settled; the AI average is uncalibrated.
The inverse pair. EUR/USD has its own page. Its thresholds are measured on EUR/USD, so its numbers are close to, but not an exact mirror of, this page. Its history is not independent evidence of accuracy.

Forecast versions

Each version keeps its own reference rate and source timestamps. Earlier versions are stored, never overwritten. Shown at ±1%; every version holds all four thresholds.

Stored versions of this forecast
Published	Reference rate	Down / Within / Up at ±1%	Version
31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC	0.8621 · 30 Oct fixing	42% / 16% / 42%	Current version · viewing

Research estimate AI average · uncalibrated

Down 1% or more

Between −1% and +1%

Up 1% or more

Down 5% or more

Between −5% and +5%

Up 5% or more

Down 10% or more

Between −10% and +10%

Up 10% or more

Down 50% or more

Between −50% and +50%

Up 50% or more

Rate so far and forecast range

All movement thresholds

Compare sources

AI average

OpenAI

Claude

Statistical reference

Prediction markets

AI average

OpenAI

Claude

Statistical reference

Prediction markets

AI average

OpenAI

Claude

Statistical reference

Prediction markets

AI average

OpenAI

Claude

Statistical reference

Prediction markets

Distribution of possible moves

Why these estimates?

What could push USD/EUR higher?

What could push it lower?

Events before the target date

Scheduled dates

Hypothetical scenarios

Prediction-market context

What this forecast may miss

Forecast versions

Track record

Other USD/EUR dates

Sources

Method