Demo data

November 2026 outlook (month-end)

USD/EUR forecast for 30 Nov 2026

Fresh

Link to this forecast: https://futurenotset.com/forex/usd-eur/forecast/2026-11-30/. This address always means 30 Nov 2026.

Reference rate
0.8621 euros per US dollar · derived from the ECB EUR/USD reference rate · frozenEUR per US dollar · frozen
Dates and timesHide dates and times
Rate observed
Friday, 30 Oct 2026 · ECB fixing, about 16:00 CET
Forecast published
31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · rate 15 h old
Target
30 Nov 2026 · settles on the ECB rate for Monday, 30 Nov

Reference rate from 30 Oct. The ECB publishes no reference rates at weekends or on TARGET holidays. The outcome uses the ECB fixing of Monday, 30 Nov 2026.

View EUR/USD — US dollars per euro

Settles on Monday, 30 Nov 2026

Movement threshold
1% — see every threshold 5% — see every threshold 10% — see every threshold 50% — see every threshold

Default for currency pairs: 1%

Research estimate AI average · uncalibrated

AI average · uncalibrated Two research runs, by OpenAI and Claude. Each one searches news, central-bank and market data, cites what it used, then estimates. Weighted equally. ECB reference rate for 30 Nov 2026.

±1% from 0.8621 ±5% from 0.8621 ±10% from 0.8621 ±50% from 0.8621

Down 1% or more

37%

0.8534 or lower

Between −1% and +1%

27%

0.8534 to 0.8707

Up 1% or more

36%

0.8707 or higher

Down 1% or more

0.8534 or lower

37%

Between −1% and +1%

0.8534 to 0.8707

27%

Up 1% or more

0.8707 or higher

36%

The most likely of the three outcomes is down 1% or more, at 37%. Down 37% · Within 27% · Up 36% at ±1%.

Down 5% or more

6%

0.8190 or lower

Between −5% and +5%

88%

0.8190 to 0.9052

Up 5% or more

6%

0.9052 or higher

Down 5% or more

0.8190 or lower

6%

Between −5% and +5%

0.8190 to 0.9052

88%

Up 5% or more

0.9052 or higher

6%

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −5% and +5%, at 88%. Down 6% · Within 88% · Up 6% at ±5%.

Down 10% or more

0.4%

0.7759 or lower

Between −10% and +10%

98.6%

0.7759 to 0.9483

Up 10% or more

1.0%

0.9483 or higher

Down 10% or more

0.7759 or lower

0.4%

Between −10% and +10%

0.7759 to 0.9483

98.6%

Up 10% or more

0.9483 or higher

1.0%

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −10% and +10%, at 98.6%. Down 0.4% · Within 98.6% · Up 1.0% at ±10%.

Down 50% or more

<0.1%

0.4310 or lower

Between −50% and +50%

100.0%

0.4310 to 1.2931

Up 50% or more

0.0%

1.2931 or higher

Down 50% or more

0.4310 or lower

<0.1%

Between −50% and +50%

0.4310 to 1.2931

100.0%

Up 50% or more

1.2931 or higher

0.0%

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −50% and +50%, at 100.0%. Down <0.1% · Within 100.0% · Up 0.0% at ±50%.

How boundaries are counted

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8534 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8707 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.8534 and 0.8707. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8190 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.9052 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.8190 and 0.9052. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.7759 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.9483 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.7759 and 0.9483. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.4310 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 1.2931 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.4310 and 1.2931. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

The rate on the target date, not whether a level is touched before it. Probability estimates, not guarantees. Methodology and limitations.

USD/EUR · 30 Nov · ±1% Down 37%, within 27%, up 36%
USD/EUR · 30 Nov · ±5% Down 6%, within 88%, up 6%
USD/EUR · 30 Nov · ±10% Down 0.4%, within 98.6%, up 1.0%
USD/EUR · 30 Nov · ±50% Down <0.1%, within 100.0%, up 0.0%

Rate so far and forecast range

USD/EUR since 31 Jul, then where the research estimate puts the rate on 30 Nov 2026.

Middle estimate
0.8616
Even odds above or below
50% chance between
0.8448 – 0.8787
25th to 75th percentile
80% chance between
0.8249 – 0.8997
10th to 90th percentile
0.900.880.860.840.82 31 Jul31 Aug30 Sep31 Oct30 Nov RATE HISTORYFORECAST RANGETARGET +1% · 0.8707 −1% · 0.8534 +5% · 0.9052 −5% · 0.8190 +10% · 0.9483 ↑ −10% · 0.7759 ↓ +50% · 1.2931 ↑ −50% · 0.4310 ↓ 90th · 0.8997 75th · 0.8787 Median · 0.8616 25th · 0.8448 10th · 0.8249 0.8621 0.900.880.860.840.82 31 Jul31 Aug30 Sep31 Oct30 Nov +1% · 0.8707 −1% · 0.8534 +5% · 0.9052 −5% · 0.8190 +10% · 0.9483 ↑ −10% · 0.7759 ↓ +50% · 1.2931 ↑ −50% · 0.4310 ↓ 0.8621
The forecast is only for 30 Nov 2026, 23:59 UTC; the shading between 30 Oct and 30 Nov is interpolated for readability, not a forecast of the path. Percentiles come from the AI average, spread evenly within each threshold band. The models put 73% of the probability outside ±1%.
Chart data as a table
Forecast percentiles for 30 Nov 2026, 23:59 UTC (AI average)
PercentileRate
10th0.8249
25th0.8448
Median (50th)0.8616
75th0.8787
90th0.8997
USD/EUR rate history, month-ends and the reference date
DateRate
31 Jul 20260.8725
31 Aug 20260.8613
30 Sep 20260.8730
30 Oct 20260.8621

All movement thresholds

AI average for the ECB reference rate for Monday, 30 Nov 2026, from the 0.8621 reference. Rates are euros per US dollar. All four thresholds are on this page; choosing one updates the panels above.

AI average probabilities for each movement threshold
ThresholdMove Down Within Up Selection
±1% 37% Down 1% or more: 0.8534 or lower 27% Between −1% and +1%: 0.8534 to 0.8707 36% Up 1% or more: 0.8707 or higher Selected Show ±1%
±5% 6% Down 5% or more: 0.8190 or lower 88% Between −5% and +5%: 0.8190 to 0.9052 6% Up 5% or more: 0.9052 or higher Selected Show ±5%
±10% 0.4% Down 10% or more: 0.7759 or lower 98.6% Between −10% and +10%: 0.7759 to 0.9483 1.0% Up 10% or more: 0.9483 or higher Selected Show ±10%
±50% <0.1% Down 50% or more: 0.4310 or lower 100.0% Between −50% and +50%: 0.4310 to 1.2931 0.0% Up 50% or more: 1.2931 or higher Selected Show ±50%

Within ranges exclude both boundaries. Wider thresholds always have a larger Within share: the estimates nest consistently. A 50% move in a major currency pair is extremely unlikely; the estimate is shown rather than hidden so all four thresholds stay comparable. Values shown as “<0.1%” or “>99.9%” are bounds; the underlying values sum to 100%.

Compare sources

Selected threshold ±1%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8621 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 14 percentage points at ±1%.

Selected threshold ±5%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8621 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 5 percentage points at ±5%.

Selected threshold ±10%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8621 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude give the same estimates at ±10%.

Selected threshold ±50%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8621 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude give the same estimates at ±50%.

Down, within and up probabilities by source at the selected threshold
Source Down Within Up Updated Coverage Details
AI average Average · uncalibrated 37%27%36% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 44%26%30% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 30%28%42% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 33%33%34% 30 Oct 2026 fixing FreshECB rate history Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated 6%88%6% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 8%87%5% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 3%90%7% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 2%95%3% 30 Oct 2026 fixing FreshECB rate history Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated 0.4%98.6%1.0% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 0.6%98.6%0.8% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 0.2%98.6%1.2% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture <0.1%99.8%0.2% 30 Oct 2026 fixing FreshECB rate history Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated <0.1%100.0%0.0% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run <0.1%>99.9%0.0% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 0%100%0% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 0%100%0% 30 Oct 2026 fixing FreshECB rate history Details: Statistical reference — method
Prediction markets No matching market No contract on USD/EUR settles near November 2026, and no related contract was found. Checked 31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC.
Source details
AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 2.3% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
37%
Within
27%
Up
36%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
44%
Within
26%
Up
30%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
30%
Within
28%
Up
42%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
33%
Within
33%
Up
34%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 2.3% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on USD/EUR settles near November 2026, and no related contract was found.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
6%
Within
88%
Up
6%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
8%
Within
87%
Up
5%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
3%
Within
90%
Up
7%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
2%
Within
95%
Up
3%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 2.3% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on USD/EUR settles near November 2026, and no related contract was found.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
0.4%
Within
98.6%
Up
1.0%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
0.6%
Within
98.6%
Up
0.8%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
0.2%
Within
98.6%
Up
1.2%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
<0.1%
Within
99.8%
Up
0.2%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 2.3% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on USD/EUR settles near November 2026, and no related contract was found.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
<0.1%
Within
100.0%
Up
0.0%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
<0.1%
Within
>99.9%
Up
0.0%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
0%
Within
100%
Up
0%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
0%
Within
100%
Up
0%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 2.3% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on USD/EUR settles near November 2026, and no related contract was found.

Distribution of possible moves

AI average, built from the threshold probabilities and spread evenly within each band. Heights show probability per percentage point.

Down band Within band Up band Selected threshold Reference, 0%

Histogram of the bands listed in the table beside: probability per percentage point for each band between −10% and +10%.

Hover a band for its price range and probability. Not drawn: 0.4% of outcomes below −10% (0.7759) and 1% above +10% (0.9483). The ±50% boundaries (0.4310 and 1.2931) are far outside this axis.

The same distribution as a table
Change Rate Prob. Per point
Below −10% Below 0.7759 0.4% —
−10% to −5% 0.7759–0.8190 5% 1.03
−5% to −1% 0.8190–0.8534 31% 7.87
−1% to +1% 0.8534–0.8707 27% 13.59
+1% to +5% 0.8707–0.9052 30% 7.41
+5% to +10% 0.9052–0.9483 5% 1.03
Above +10% Above 0.9483 1% —
Total 100%

Why these estimates?

Directional factors follow the quote (euros per US dollar): “higher” means USD/EUR rises. Each item says whether it is a reported fact or the model’s inference.

What could push USD/EUR higher?

  1. Firm US data Model inference

    Strong US data before the target date could keep US yields high and support the dollar against the euro. 3

  2. Weaker euro-area growth Model inference

    Soft euro-area activity data could raise expectations of further ECB easing, weighing on the euro. 4

What could push it lower?

  1. Narrowing rate gap Model inference

    If the Federal Reserve cuts faster than the ECB, the interest-rate gap that favours the dollar would narrow, which tends to strengthen the euro against the dollar. 1

  2. [Reported fact] Reported fact

    [Fact quoted from source 2 with its own date, for example a published inflation figure.] 2

Events before the target date

Scheduled dates come from official calendars. Scenarios are hypothetical and have no date.

Confirmed dates

  1. 30 Nov 2026

    Target observation

    ECB reference rate for Monday, 30 Nov settles this forecast.

    Forecast target

  2. 9 Dec 2026

    US Federal Reserve policy decision

    After the target date, so it cannot affect this outcome. Federal Reserve calendar

    After target

Hypothetical scenarios

  • A sudden global risk-off move that shifts demand toward safe-haven currencies.

    Scenario · no date

Prediction-market context

No matching market Related market: none Checked 31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC

No contract on USD/EUR settles near November 2026, and no related contract was found. Market evidence is left out rather than shown as 0%.

Options-implied (risk-neutral) estimates are a different kind of evidence and are not shown in this version. How sources are matched

What this forecast may miss

  • Moves between fixings. The ECB rate is one daily observation; market rates at other times can differ.
  • Weekend news. Anything after 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC enters only with a new version.
  • Calibration. Very few USD/EUR forecasts have settled; the AI average is uncalibrated.
  • The inverse pair. EUR/USD has its own page. Its thresholds are measured on EUR/USD, so its numbers are close to, but not an exact mirror of, this page. Its history is not independent evidence of accuracy.

Forecast versions

Each version keeps its own reference rate and source timestamps. Earlier versions are stored, never overwritten. Shown at ±1%; every version holds all four thresholds.

Stored versions of this forecast
Published Reference rate Down / Within / Up at ±1% Version
31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC 0.8621 · 30 Oct fixing 37% / 27% / 36% Current version · viewing