US dollars per euro · EUR/USD

Forecast outcome — 30 Sep 2026

Settled

Forecast issued on 31 Jul 2026, 06:12 UTC

61 days before the target. This is the scored version, chosen by the documented evaluation rule. The original estimates below are unchanged.

Result

Original reference: 1.1480; Observed ECB fixing, Thursday, 30 Jul 2026
Target observation: 1.1455; ECB fixing, Wednesday, 30 Sep 2026 · ECB daily reference rate
Realized return: −0.22%; Price at the target versus the reference
Outcome at ±1%: Between −1% and +1%; 1.1365 to 1.1595
Outcome at ±5%: Between −5% and +5%; 1.0906 to 1.2054
Outcome at ±10%: Between −10% and +10%; 1.0332 to 1.2628
Outcome at ±50%: Between −50% and +50%; 0.5740 to 1.7220

Movement threshold

1% 5% 10% 50%

1% — see every threshold 5% — see every threshold 10% — see every threshold 50% — see every threshold

One outcome is scored at each threshold. The page keeps all four.

Original forecast · AI average — uncalibrated

As published on 31 Jul 2026. Nothing here has been rewritten after the outcome.

Down 1% or more

36%

1.1365 or lower

Did not happen

Between −1% and +1%

20%

1.1365 to 1.1595

Happened

Up 1% or more

44%

1.1595 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 20% on the outcome that happened.

Down 5% or more

1.0906 or lower

Did not happen

Between −5% and +5%

77%

1.0906 to 1.2054

Happened

Up 5% or more

14%

1.2054 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 77% on the outcome that happened.

Down 10% or more

1.0332 or lower

Did not happen

Between −10% and +10%

97%

1.0332 to 1.2628

Happened

Up 10% or more

1.2628 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 97% on the outcome that happened.

Down 50% or more

<0.1%

0.5740 or lower

Did not happen

Between −50% and +50%

>99.9%

0.5740 to 1.7220

Happened

Up 50% or more

<0.1%

1.7220 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put >99.9% on the outcome that happened.

Score for this result

Brier score at ±1%: 0.975

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.36 − 0)² + (0.20 − 1)² + (0.44 − 0)² = 0.975

Brier score at ±5%: 0.083

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.09 − 0)² + (0.77 − 1)² + (0.14 − 0)² = 0.083

Brier score at ±10%: 0.002

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.01 − 0)² + (0.97 − 1)² + (0.02 − 0)² = 0.002

Brier score at ±50%: 0.000

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.00 − 0)² + (1.00 − 1)² + (0.00 − 0)² = 0.000

Each term is (forecast − actual)², where actual is 1 for the outcome that happened and 0 for the others. One result says little about skill. See the track record.

Outcome at every threshold

The realized return of −0.22% falls into a different category depending on the threshold.

Realized outcome and score for each threshold
Threshold	Outcome	Original Down / Within / Up	On outcome	Brier (0–2)
±1%	Between −1% and +1% 1.1365 to 1.1595	36% / 20% / 44%	20%	0.975
±5%	Between −5% and +5% 1.0906 to 1.2054	9% / 77% / 14%	77%	0.083
±10%	Between −10% and +10% 1.0332 to 1.2628	1% / 97% / 2%	97%	0.002
±50%	Between −50% and +50% 0.5740 to 1.7220	<0.1% / >99.9% / <0.1%	>99.9%	0.000

Values shown as <0.1% or >99.9% are rounded for display; the underlying values sum to 100%.

Scores by source

At ±1%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±1%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	36% / 20% / 44%	0.975
OpenAI	33% / 19% / 48%	1.005
Claude	39% / 21% / 40%	0.950
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	38% / 24% / 38%	0.869
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±5%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±5%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	9% / 77% / 14%	0.083
OpenAI	9% / 74% / 17%	0.101
Claude	10% / 79% / 11%	0.067
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	6% / 87% / 7%	0.025
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±10%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±10%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	1% / 97% / 2%	0.002
OpenAI	1% / 96% / 3%	0.003
Claude	1% / 97% / 2%	0.001
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	0.1% / 99.7% / 0.2%	0.000
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±50%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±50%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	<0.1% / >99.9% / <0.1%	0.000
OpenAI	<0.1% / >99.9% / <0.1%	0.000
Claude	<0.1% / >99.9% / <0.1%	0.000
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	<0.1% / 100.0% / 0.0%	0.000
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

Which version is scored

One version was published for this date. The evaluation rule picks the scored version per target in advance, so the score never depends on which version happened to look best. Evaluation rules

Published versions for this target date
Issued	Lead time	Reference	±1% Down / Within / Up	Evaluation
31 Jul 2026, 06:12 UTC	61 days	1.1480 30 Jul fixing	36% / 20% / 44%	Scored version

Each stored version keeps its own reference price and timestamps.

Later EUR/USD forecasts

This page stays at this address. Later dates have their own pages; you are not redirected.

30 Nov 2026 forecast 31 Dec 2026 forecast 31 Jan 2027 forecast

Before settlement

Between the target time and the arrival of the settlement price, this page shows a pending state instead of a result.

History

EUR/USD forecast history Forecast track record