Demo data

Year-end 2026 outlook

EUR/USD forecast for 31 Dec 2026

Fresh

Link to this forecast: https://futurenotset.com/forex/eur-usd/forecast/2026-12-31/. This address always means 31 Dec 2026.

Reference rate
1.1600 US dollars per euro · ECB daily reference rate · frozenUSD per euro · frozen
Dates and timesHide dates and times
Rate observed
Friday, 30 Oct 2026 · ECB fixing, about 16:00 CET
Forecast published
31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · rate 15 h old
Target
31 Dec 2026 · settles on the ECB rate for Thursday, 31 Dec

Reference rate from 30 Oct. The ECB publishes no reference rates at weekends or on TARGET holidays. The outcome uses the ECB fixing of Thursday, 31 Dec 2026.

View USD/EUR — euros per US dollar

Settles on Thursday, 31 Dec 2026

Movement threshold
1% — see every threshold 5% — see every threshold 10% — see every threshold 50% — see every threshold

Default for currency pairs: 1%

Research estimate AI average · uncalibrated

AI average · uncalibrated Two research runs, by OpenAI and Claude. Each one searches news, central-bank and market data, cites what it used, then estimates. Weighted equally. ECB reference rate for 31 Dec 2026.

±1% from 1.1600 ±5% from 1.1600 ±10% from 1.1600 ±50% from 1.1600

Down 1% or more

40%

1.1484 or lower

Between −1% and +1%

20%

1.1484 to 1.1716

Up 1% or more

40%

1.1716 or higher

Down 1% or more

1.1484 or lower

40%

Between −1% and +1%

1.1484 to 1.1716

20%

Up 1% or more

1.1716 or higher

40%

The most likely of the three outcomes is down 1% or more, at 40%. Down 40% · Within 20% · Up 40% at ±1%.

Down 5% or more

11%

1.1020 or lower

Between −5% and +5%

77%

1.1020 to 1.2180

Up 5% or more

12%

1.2180 or higher

Down 5% or more

1.1020 or lower

11%

Between −5% and +5%

1.1020 to 1.2180

77%

Up 5% or more

1.2180 or higher

12%

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −5% and +5%, at 77%. Down 11% · Within 77% · Up 12% at ±5%.

Down 10% or more

1%

1.0440 or lower

Between −10% and +10%

97%

1.0440 to 1.2760

Up 10% or more

2%

1.2760 or higher

Down 10% or more

1.0440 or lower

1%

Between −10% and +10%

1.0440 to 1.2760

97%

Up 10% or more

1.2760 or higher

2%

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −10% and +10%, at 97%. Down 1% · Within 97% · Up 2% at ±10%.

Down 50% or more

<0.1%

0.5800 or lower

Between −50% and +50%

>99.9%

0.5800 to 1.7400

Up 50% or more

<0.1%

1.7400 or higher

Down 50% or more

0.5800 or lower

<0.1%

Between −50% and +50%

0.5800 to 1.7400

>99.9%

Up 50% or more

1.7400 or higher

<0.1%

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −50% and +50%, at >99.9%. Down <0.1% · Within >99.9% · Up <0.1% at ±50%.

How boundaries are counted

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 1.1484 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 1.1716 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 1.1484 and 1.1716. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 1.1020 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 1.2180 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 1.1020 and 1.2180. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 1.0440 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 1.2760 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 1.0440 and 1.2760. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.5800 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 1.7400 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.5800 and 1.7400. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

The rate on the target date, not whether a level is touched before it. Probability estimates, not guarantees. Methodology and limitations.

EUR/USD · 31 Dec · ±1% Down 40%, within 20%, up 40%
EUR/USD · 31 Dec · ±5% Down 11%, within 77%, up 12%
EUR/USD · 31 Dec · ±10% Down 1%, within 97%, up 2%
EUR/USD · 31 Dec · ±50% Down <0.1%, within >99.9%, up <0.1%

Rate so far and forecast range

EUR/USD since 31 Jul, then where the research estimate puts the rate on 31 Dec 2026.

Middle estimate
1.1594
Even odds above or below
50% chance between
1.1258 – 1.1936
25th to 75th percentile
80% chance between
1.0946 – 1.2274
10th to 90th percentile
1.251.201.151.101.05 31 Jul31 Aug30 Sep31 Oct30 Nov31 Dec RATE HISTORYFORECAST RANGETARGET +1% · 1.1716 −1% · 1.1484 +5% · 1.2180 −5% · 1.1020 +10% · 1.2760 ↑ −10% · 1.0440 +50% · 1.7400 ↑ −50% · 0.5800 ↓ 90th · 1.2274 75th · 1.1936 Median · 1.1594 25th · 1.1258 10th · 1.0946 1.1600 1.251.201.151.101.05 31 Jul31 Aug30 Sep31 Oct30 Nov31 Dec +1% · 1.1716 −1% · 1.1484 +5% · 1.2180 −5% · 1.1020 +10% · 1.2760 ↑ −10% · 1.0440 +50% · 1.7400 ↑ −50% · 0.5800 ↓ 1.1600
The forecast is only for 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC; the shading between 30 Oct and 31 Dec is interpolated for readability, not a forecast of the path. Percentiles come from the AI average, spread evenly within each threshold band. The models put 80% of the probability outside ±1%.
Chart data as a table
Forecast percentiles for 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC (AI average)
PercentileRate
10th1.0946
25th1.1258
Median (50th)1.1594
75th1.1936
90th1.2274
EUR/USD rate history, month-ends and the reference date
DateRate
31 Jul 20261.1461
31 Aug 20261.1610
30 Sep 20261.1455
30 Oct 20261.1600

All movement thresholds

AI average for the ECB reference rate for Thursday, 31 Dec 2026, from the 1.1600 reference. Rates are US dollars per euro. All four thresholds are on this page; choosing one updates the panels above.

AI average probabilities for each movement threshold
ThresholdMove Down Within Up Selection
±1% 40% Down 1% or more: 1.1484 or lower 20% Between −1% and +1%: 1.1484 to 1.1716 40% Up 1% or more: 1.1716 or higher Selected Show ±1%
±5% 11% Down 5% or more: 1.1020 or lower 77% Between −5% and +5%: 1.1020 to 1.2180 12% Up 5% or more: 1.2180 or higher Selected Show ±5%
±10% 1% Down 10% or more: 1.0440 or lower 97% Between −10% and +10%: 1.0440 to 1.2760 2% Up 10% or more: 1.2760 or higher Selected Show ±10%
±50% <0.1% Down 50% or more: 0.5800 or lower >99.9% Between −50% and +50%: 0.5800 to 1.7400 <0.1% Up 50% or more: 1.7400 or higher Selected Show ±50%

Within ranges exclude both boundaries. Wider thresholds always have a larger Within share: the estimates nest consistently. A 50% move in a major currency pair is extremely unlikely; the estimate is shown rather than hidden so all four thresholds stay comparable. Values shown as “<0.1%” or “>99.9%” are bounds; the underlying values sum to 100%.

Compare sources

Selected threshold ±1%. Every source uses the same event and the same 1.1600 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 7 percentage points at ±1%.

Selected threshold ±5%. Every source uses the same event and the same 1.1600 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 4 percentage points at ±5%.

Selected threshold ±10%. Every source uses the same event and the same 1.1600 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 1 percentage point at ±10%.

Selected threshold ±50%. Every source uses the same event and the same 1.1600 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude give the same estimates at ±50%.

Down, within and up probabilities by source at the selected threshold
Source Down Within Up Updated Coverage Details
AI average Average · uncalibrated 40%20%40% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 44%19%37% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 37%20%43% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 38%24%38% 30 Oct 2026 fixing FreshECB rate history Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated 11%77%12% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 13%76%11% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 9%79%12% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 6%87%7% 30 Oct 2026 fixing FreshECB rate history Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated 1%97%2% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 2%96%2% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 1%97%2% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 0.1%99.7%0.2% 30 Oct 2026 fixing FreshECB rate history Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated <0.1%>99.9%<0.1% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run <0.1%>99.9%<0.1% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run <0.1%>99.9%<0.1% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture <0.1%100.0%0.0% 30 Oct 2026 fixing FreshECB rate history Details: Statistical reference — method
Prediction markets No matching market No contract on EUR/USD settles near December 2026, and no related contract was found. Checked 31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC.
Source details
AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 3.3% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
40%
Within
20%
Up
40%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
44%
Within
19%
Up
37%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
37%
Within
20%
Up
43%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
38%
Within
24%
Up
38%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 3.3% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on EUR/USD settles near December 2026, and no related contract was found.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
11%
Within
77%
Up
12%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
13%
Within
76%
Up
11%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
9%
Within
79%
Up
12%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
6%
Within
87%
Up
7%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 3.3% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on EUR/USD settles near December 2026, and no related contract was found.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
1%
Within
97%
Up
2%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
2%
Within
96%
Up
2%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
1%
Within
97%
Up
2%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
0.1%
Within
99.7%
Up
0.2%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 3.3% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on EUR/USD settles near December 2026, and no related contract was found.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
<0.1%
Within
>99.9%
Up
<0.1%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
<0.1%
Within
>99.9%
Up
<0.1%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
<0.1%
Within
>99.9%
Up
<0.1%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
<0.1%
Within
100.0%
Up
0.0%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 3.3% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on EUR/USD settles near December 2026, and no related contract was found.

Distribution of possible moves

AI average, built from the threshold probabilities and spread evenly within each band. Heights show probability per percentage point.

Down band Within band Up band Selected threshold Reference, 0%

Histogram of the bands listed in the table beside: probability per percentage point for each band between −10% and +10%.

Hover a band for its price range and probability. Not drawn: 1% of outcomes below −10% (1.0440) and 2% above +10% (1.2760). The ±50% boundaries (0.5800 and 1.7400) are far outside this axis.

The same distribution as a table
Change Rate Prob. Per point
Below −10% Below 1.0440 1% —
−10% to −5% 1.0440–1.1020 10% 1.98
−5% to −1% 1.1020–1.1484 29% 7.34
−1% to +1% 1.1484–1.1716 20% 9.83
+1% to +5% 1.1716–1.2180 28% 7.03
+5% to +10% 1.2180–1.2760 10% 1.97
Above +10% Above 1.2760 2% —
Total 100%

Why these estimates?

Directional factors follow the quote (US dollars per euro): “higher” means EUR/USD rises. Each item says whether it is a reported fact or the model’s inference.

What could push EUR/USD higher?

  1. Narrowing rate gap Model inference

    If the Federal Reserve cuts faster than the ECB, the interest-rate gap that favours the dollar would narrow, which tends to strengthen the euro against the dollar. 1

  2. [Reported fact] Reported fact

    [Fact quoted from source 2 with its own date, for example a published inflation figure.] 2

What could push it lower?

  1. Firm US data Model inference

    Strong US data before the 9 Dec FOMC decision could keep US yields high and support the dollar against the euro. 3 7

  2. Weaker euro-area growth Model inference

    Soft euro-area activity data could raise expectations of further ECB easing at or after the 17 Dec meeting, weighing on the euro. 4 6

Events before the target date

Scheduled dates come from official calendars. Scenarios are hypothetical and have no date.

Confirmed dates

  1. 9 Dec 2026

    US Federal Reserve policy decision

    FOMC meeting 8–9 Dec; statement at 2:00 p.m. ET. Federal Reserve calendar

    Confirmed date

  2. 17 Dec 2026

    ECB monetary policy meeting

    Decision followed by a press conference. ECB meeting calendar

    Confirmed date

  3. 31 Dec 2026

    Target observation

    ECB reference rate for Thursday, 31 Dec settles this forecast.

    Forecast target

  4. 26–27 Jan 2027

    US Federal Reserve meeting

    After the target date, so it cannot affect this outcome.

    After target

Hypothetical scenarios

  • A sudden global risk-off move that shifts demand toward safe-haven currencies.

    Scenario · no date

Prediction-market context

No matching market Related market: none Checked 31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC

No contract on EUR/USD settles near December 2026, and no related contract was found. Market evidence is left out rather than shown as 0%.

Options-implied (risk-neutral) estimates are a different kind of evidence and are not shown in this version. How sources are matched

What this forecast may miss

  • Moves between fixings. The ECB rate is one daily observation; market rates at other times can differ.
  • Weekend news. Anything after 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC enters only with a new version.
  • Calibration. Very few EUR/USD forecasts have settled; the AI average is uncalibrated.
  • The inverse pair. USD/EUR has its own page. Its thresholds are measured on USD/EUR, so its numbers are close to, but not an exact mirror of, this page. Its history is not independent evidence of accuracy.

Forecast versions

Each version keeps its own reference rate and source timestamps. Earlier versions are stored, never overwritten. Shown at ±1%; every version holds all four thresholds.

Stored versions of this forecast
Published Reference rate Down / Within / Up at ±1% Version
31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC 1.1600 · 30 Oct fixing 40% / 20% / 40% Current version · viewing