ETH/USD forecast history
Every published ETH/USD forecast with its original probabilities and, once the target date has passed, the outcome and score.
Live forward forecasts are published before their target date and stored unchanged. 2 have reached their target and were scored; 5 are awaiting their target dates. Every threshold is listed for each target.
| Target date | Issued · lead time | Reference | Threshold | Down / Within / Up | Actual return | Outcome | Brier | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr 2027 | 31 Oct 2026 · 181 days | $3,000 | ±1% | 53% / 1% / 46% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 30 Apr 2027 forecast |
| 30 Apr 2027 | 31 Oct 2026 · 181 days | $3,000 | ±5% | 50% / 7% / 43% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 30 Apr 2027 forecast |
| 30 Apr 2027 | 31 Oct 2026 · 181 days | $3,000 | ±10% | 47% / 13% / 40% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 30 Apr 2027 forecast |
| 30 Apr 2027 | 31 Oct 2026 · 181 days | $3,000 | ±50% | 15% / 62% / 23% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 30 Apr 2027 forecast |
| 31 Jan 2027 | 31 Oct 2026 · 92 days | $3,000 | ±1% | 54% / 2% / 44% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 31 Jan 2027 forecast |
| 31 Jan 2027 | 31 Oct 2026 · 92 days | $3,000 | ±5% | 50% / 9% / 41% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 31 Jan 2027 forecast |
| 31 Jan 2027 | 31 Oct 2026 · 92 days | $3,000 | ±10% | 45% / 18% / 37% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 31 Jan 2027 forecast |
| 31 Jan 2027 | 31 Oct 2026 · 92 days | $3,000 | ±50% | 8% / 77% / 15% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 31 Jan 2027 forecast |
| 31 Dec 2026 | 31 Oct 2026 · 61 days | $3,000 | ±1% | 45% / 2% / 53% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 31 Dec 2026 forecast |
| 31 Dec 2026 | 31 Oct 2026 · 61 days | $3,000 | ±5% | 41% / 11% / 48% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 31 Dec 2026 forecast |
| 31 Dec 2026 | 31 Oct 2026 · 61 days | $3,000 | ±10% | 35% / 22% / 43% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 31 Dec 2026 forecast |
| 31 Dec 2026 | 31 Oct 2026 · 61 days | $3,000 | ±50% | 3% / 82% / 15% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 31 Dec 2026 forecast |
| 30 Nov 2026 | 31 Oct 2026 · 30 days | $3,000 | ±1% | 51% / 3% / 46% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 30 Nov 2026 forecast |
| 30 Nov 2026 | 31 Oct 2026 · 30 days | $3,000 | ±5% | 44% / 16% / 40% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 30 Nov 2026 forecast |
| 30 Nov 2026 | 31 Oct 2026 · 30 days | $3,000 | ±10% | 35% / 32% / 33% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 30 Nov 2026 forecast |
| 30 Nov 2026 | 31 Oct 2026 · 30 days | $3,000 | ±50% | 1% / 93% / 6% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 30 Nov 2026 forecast |
| 31 Oct 2026 | 31 Oct 2026 · 0 days | $3,000 | ±1% | 46% / 18% / 36% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 31 Oct 2026 forecast |
| 31 Oct 2026 | 31 Oct 2026 · 0 days | $3,000 | ±5% | 16% / 72% / 12% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 31 Oct 2026 forecast |
| 31 Oct 2026 | 31 Oct 2026 · 0 days | $3,000 | ±10% | 3% / 95% / 2% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 31 Oct 2026 forecast |
| 31 Oct 2026 | 31 Oct 2026 · 0 days | $3,000 | ±50% | <0.1% / >99.9% / <0.1% | Awaiting target | Pending outcome | Not scored | View the 31 Oct 2026 forecast |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 · 61 days | $2,900 | ±1% | 50% / 2% / 48% | +5.17% | Up 1% or more | 0.528 | View the 30 Sep 2026 forecast |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 · 61 days | $2,900 | ±5% | 46% / 11% / 43% | +5.17% | Up 5% or more | 0.543 | View the 30 Sep 2026 forecast |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 · 61 days | $2,900 | ±10% | 39% / 23% / 38% | +5.17% | Between −10% and +10% | 0.900 | View the 30 Sep 2026 forecast |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 · 61 days | $2,900 | ±50% | 4% / 84% / 12% | +5.17% | Between −50% and +50% | 0.043 | View the 30 Sep 2026 forecast |
| 31 Aug 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 · 31 days | $2,900 | ±1% | 48% / 3% / 49% | −11.72% | Down 1% or more | 0.517 | View the 31 Aug 2026 forecast |
| 31 Aug 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 · 31 days | $2,900 | ±5% | 41% / 16% / 43% | −11.72% | Down 5% or more | 0.556 | View the 31 Aug 2026 forecast |
| 31 Aug 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 · 31 days | $2,900 | ±10% | 33% / 31% / 36% | −11.72% | Down 10% or more | 0.672 | View the 31 Aug 2026 forecast |
| 31 Aug 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 · 31 days | $2,900 | ±50% | 1% / 92% / 7% | −11.72% | Between −50% and +50% | 0.010 | View the 31 Aug 2026 forecast |
Only the scored version of each target is listed. Other versions are on each forecast page. Brier scores use the AI average.
How scores work
Brier score over three outcomes, from 0 (perfect) to 2. Lower is better.
Targets of one pair overlap in time and share the same price moves, so their results are correlated, not independent samples. A handful of settled forecasts says little about skill.
Forecast track recordInverse currency pairs
EUR/USD and USD/EUR settle on the same observations, so their histories are not independent samples of performance.