Ethereum · ETH/USD

Forecast outcome — 30 Sep 2026

Settled

Forecast issued on 31 Jul 2026, 06:12 UTC

61 days before the target. This is the scored version, chosen by the documented evaluation rule. The original estimates below are unchanged.

Result

Original reference: $2,900; Observed 31 Jul 2026, 06:00 UTC
Target observation: $3,050; 30 Sep 2026, 23:59 UTC · [Crypto price provider] aggregated reference observation
Realized return: +5.17%; Price at the target versus the reference
Outcome at ±1%: Up 1% or more; $2,929 or higher
Outcome at ±5%: Up 5% or more; $3,045 or higher
Outcome at ±10%: Between −10% and +10%; $2,610 to $3,190
Outcome at ±50%: Between −50% and +50%; $1,450 to $4,350

Movement threshold

1% 5% 10% 50%

1% — see every threshold 5% — see every threshold 10% — see every threshold 50% — see every threshold

One outcome is scored at each threshold. The page keeps all four.

Original forecast · AI average — uncalibrated

As published on 31 Jul 2026. Nothing here has been rewritten after the outcome.

Down 1% or more

50%

$2,871 or lower

Did not happen

Between −1% and +1%

$2,871 to $2,929

Did not happen

Up 1% or more

48%

$2,929 or higher

Happened

The forecast put 48% on the outcome that happened.

Down 5% or more

46%

$2,755 or lower

Did not happen

Between −5% and +5%

11%

$2,755 to $3,045

Did not happen

Up 5% or more

43%

$3,045 or higher

Happened

The forecast put 43% on the outcome that happened.

Down 10% or more

39%

$2,610 or lower

Did not happen

Between −10% and +10%

23%

$2,610 to $3,190

Happened

Up 10% or more

38%

$3,190 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 23% on the outcome that happened.

Down 50% or more

$1,450 or lower

Did not happen

Between −50% and +50%

84%

$1,450 to $4,350

Happened

Up 50% or more

12%

$4,350 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 84% on the outcome that happened.

Score for this result

Brier score at ±1%: 0.528

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.50 − 0)² + (0.02 − 0)² + (0.48 − 1)² = 0.528

Brier score at ±5%: 0.543

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.45 − 0)² + (0.11 − 0)² + (0.43 − 1)² = 0.543

Brier score at ±10%: 0.900

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.39 − 0)² + (0.23 − 1)² + (0.38 − 0)² = 0.900

Brier score at ±50%: 0.043

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.04 − 0)² + (0.84 − 1)² + (0.12 − 0)² = 0.043

Each term is (forecast − actual)², where actual is 1 for the outcome that happened and 0 for the others. One result says little about skill. See the track record.

Outcome at every threshold

The realized return of +5.17% falls into a different category depending on the threshold.

Realized outcome and score for each threshold
Threshold	Outcome	Original Down / Within / Up	On outcome	Brier (0–2)
±1%	Up 1% or more $2,929 or higher	50% / 2% / 48%	48%	0.528
±5%	Up 5% or more $3,045 or higher	46% / 11% / 43%	43%	0.543
±10%	Between −10% and +10% $2,610 to $3,190	39% / 23% / 38%	23%	0.900
±50%	Between −50% and +50% $1,450 to $4,350	4% / 84% / 12%	84%	0.043

Scores by source

At ±1%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±1%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	50% / 2% / 48%	0.528
OpenAI	50% / 2% / 48%	0.518
Claude	51% / 2% / 47%	0.537
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	48% / 3% / 49%	0.501
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±5%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±5%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	46% / 11% / 43%	0.543
OpenAI	45% / 11% / 44%	0.532
Claude	46% / 12% / 42%	0.554
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	43% / 14% / 43%	0.525
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±10%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±10%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	39% / 23% / 38%	0.900
OpenAI	39% / 22% / 39%	0.918
Claude	40% / 23% / 37%	0.882
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	36% / 27% / 37%	0.794
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±50%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±50%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	4% / 84% / 12%	0.043
OpenAI	4% / 82% / 14%	0.051
Claude	4% / 85% / 11%	0.035
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	1% / 91% / 8%	0.014
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

Which version is scored

One version was published for this date. The evaluation rule picks the scored version per target in advance, so the score never depends on which version happened to look best. Evaluation rules

Published versions for this target date
Issued	Lead time	Reference	±10% Down / Within / Up	Evaluation
31 Jul 2026, 06:12 UTC	61 days	$2,900	39% / 23% / 38%	Scored version

Each stored version keeps its own reference price and timestamps.

Later ETH/USD forecasts

This page stays at this address. Later dates have their own pages; you are not redirected.

31 Oct 2026 forecast 30 Nov 2026 forecast 31 Dec 2026 forecast

Before settlement

Between the target time and the arrival of the settlement price, this page shows a pending state instead of a result.

History

ETH/USD forecast history Forecast track record