Demo data

Year-end 2026 outlook

Ethereum forecast for 31 Dec 2026

Fresh

Link to this forecast: https://futurenotset.com/crypto/eth-usd/forecast/2026-12-31/. This address always means 31 Dec 2026.

Reference price
$3,000 US dollars per ether · frozen for this versionUSD per ether · frozen
Dates and timesHide dates and times
Reference observed
31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Forecast published
31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC
Target
31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC · price at this time
Movement threshold
1% — see every threshold 5% — see every threshold 10% — see every threshold 50% — see every threshold

Research estimate AI average · uncalibrated

AI average · uncalibrated Two research runs, by OpenAI and Claude. Each one searches news, market data and official calendars, cites what it used, then estimates. Weighted equally. Price at 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC.

±1% from $3,000 ±5% from $3,000 ±10% from $3,000 ±50% from $3,000

Down 1% or more

45%

$2,970 or lower

Between −1% and +1%

2%

$2,970 to $3,030

Up 1% or more

53%

$3,030 or higher

Down 1% or more

$2,970 or lower

45%

Between −1% and +1%

$2,970 to $3,030

2%

Up 1% or more

$3,030 or higher

53%

The most likely of the three outcomes is up 1% or more, at 53%. Down 45% · Within 2% · Up 53% at ±1%.

Down 5% or more

41%

$2,850 or lower

Between −5% and +5%

11%

$2,850 to $3,150

Up 5% or more

48%

$3,150 or higher

Down 5% or more

$2,850 or lower

41%

Between −5% and +5%

$2,850 to $3,150

11%

Up 5% or more

$3,150 or higher

48%

The most likely of the three outcomes is up 5% or more, at 48%. Down 41% · Within 11% · Up 48% at ±5%.

Down 10% or more

35%

$2,700 or lower

Between −10% and +10%

22%

$2,700 to $3,300

Up 10% or more

43%

$3,300 or higher

Down 10% or more

$2,700 or lower

35%

Between −10% and +10%

$2,700 to $3,300

22%

Up 10% or more

$3,300 or higher

43%

The most likely of the three outcomes is up 10% or more, at 43%. Down 35% · Within 22% · Up 43% at ±10%.

Down 50% or more

3%

$1,500 or lower

Between −50% and +50%

82%

$1,500 to $4,500

Up 50% or more

15%

$4,500 or higher

Down 50% or more

$1,500 or lower

3%

Between −50% and +50%

$1,500 to $4,500

82%

Up 50% or more

$4,500 or higher

15%

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −50% and +50%, at 82%. Down 3% · Within 82% · Up 15% at ±50%.

How boundaries are counted

Down includes its boundary: a price of exactly $2,970 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a price of exactly $3,030 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between $2,970 and $3,030. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a price of exactly $2,850 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a price of exactly $3,150 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between $2,850 and $3,150. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a price of exactly $2,700 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a price of exactly $3,300 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between $2,700 and $3,300. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a price of exactly $1,500 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a price of exactly $4,500 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between $1,500 and $4,500. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

The price on the target date, not whether a level is touched before it. Probability estimates, not guarantees. Methodology and limitations.

ETH/USD · 31 Dec · ±1% Down 45%, within 2%, up 53%
ETH/USD · 31 Dec · ±5% Down 41%, within 11%, up 48%
ETH/USD · 31 Dec · ±10% Down 35%, within 22%, up 43%
ETH/USD · 31 Dec · ±50% Down 3%, within 82%, up 15%

Price so far and forecast range

ETH/USD since 31 Jul, then where the research estimate puts the price on 31 Dec 2026.

Middle estimate
$3,100
Even odds above or below
50% chance between
$2,400 – $3,900
25th to 75th percentile
80% chance between
$1,900 – $5,000
10th to 90th percentile
$6k$5k$4k$3k$2k$1k 31 Jul31 Aug30 Sep31 Oct30 Nov31 Dec PRICE HISTORYFORECAST RANGETARGET +1% · $3,030 −1% · $2,970 +5% · $3,150 −5% · $2,850 +10% · $3,300 −10% · $2,700 +50% · $4,500 −50% · $1,500 90th · $5,000 75th · $3,900 Median · $3,100 25th · $2,400 10th · $1,900 $3,000 $6k$5k$4k$3k$2k$1k 31 Jul31 Aug30 Sep31 Oct30 Nov31 Dec +1% · $3,030 −1% · $2,970 +5% · $3,150 −5% · $2,850 +10% · $3,300 −10% · $2,700 +50% · $4,500 −50% · $1,500 $3,000
The forecast is only for 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC; the shading between 31 Oct and 31 Dec is interpolated for readability, not a forecast of the path. Percentiles come from the AI average, spread evenly within each threshold band. The models put 78% of the probability outside ±10%.
Chart data as a table
Forecast percentiles for 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC (AI average)
PercentilePrice
10th$1,900
25th$2,400
Median (50th)$3,100
75th$3,900
90th$5,000
ETH/USD price history, month-ends and the reference date
DatePrice
31 Jul 2026$2,900
31 Aug 2026$2,560
30 Sep 2026$3,050
31 Oct 2026$3,000

All movement thresholds

AI average for the price on 31 Dec 2026, measured from the $3,000 reference. All four thresholds are on this page; choosing one updates the panels above.

AI average probabilities for each movement threshold
ThresholdMove Down Within Up Selection
±1% 45% Down 1% or more: $2,970 or lower 2% Between −1% and +1%: $2,970 to $3,030 53% Up 1% or more: $3,030 or higher Selected Show ±1%
±5% 41% Down 5% or more: $2,850 or lower 11% Between −5% and +5%: $2,850 to $3,150 48% Up 5% or more: $3,150 or higher Selected Show ±5%
±10% 35% Down 10% or more: $2,700 or lower 22% Between −10% and +10%: $2,700 to $3,300 43% Up 10% or more: $3,300 or higher Selected Show ±10%
±50% 3% Down 50% or more: $1,500 or lower 82% Between −50% and +50%: $1,500 to $4,500 15% Up 50% or more: $4,500 or higher Selected Show ±50%

Within ranges exclude both boundaries. Wider thresholds always have a larger Within share: the estimates nest consistently.

Compare sources

Selected threshold ±1%. Every source uses the same event and the same $3,000 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 2 percentage points at ±1%.

Selected threshold ±5%. Every source uses the same event and the same $3,000 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 2 percentage points at ±5%.

Selected threshold ±10%. Every source uses the same event and the same $3,000 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 2 percentage points at ±10%.

Selected threshold ±50%. Every source uses the same event and the same $3,000 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 2 percentage points at ±50%.

Down, within and up probabilities by source at the selected threshold
Source Down Within Up Updated Coverage Details
AI average Average · uncalibrated 45%2%53% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 46%2%52% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 44%2%54% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 48%3%49% 31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC FreshPrice history only Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated 41%11%48% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 41%11%48% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 39%12%49% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 43%14%43% 31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC FreshPrice history only Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated 35%22%43% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 36%22%42% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 34%23%43% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 36%27%37% 31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC FreshPrice history only Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated 3%82%15% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 4%81%15% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 3%83%14% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 1%91%8% 31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC FreshPrice history only Details: Statistical reference — method
Prediction markets No matching market Listed contracts ask whether ether touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC. No related contract settles near this date. Checked 31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC.
Source details
AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal price at the target with zero median change and 28.6% volatility over the horizon (about 70% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
45%
Within
2%
Up
53%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
46%
Within
2%
Up
52%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
44%
Within
2%
Up
54%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
48%
Within
3%
Up
49%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · Price history only

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal price at the target with zero median change and 28.6% volatility over the horizon (about 70% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

Listed contracts ask whether ether touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC. No related contract settles near this date.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
41%
Within
11%
Up
48%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
41%
Within
11%
Up
48%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
39%
Within
12%
Up
49%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
43%
Within
14%
Up
43%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · Price history only

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal price at the target with zero median change and 28.6% volatility over the horizon (about 70% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

Listed contracts ask whether ether touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC. No related contract settles near this date.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
35%
Within
22%
Up
43%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
36%
Within
22%
Up
42%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
34%
Within
23%
Up
43%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
36%
Within
27%
Up
37%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · Price history only

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal price at the target with zero median change and 28.6% volatility over the horizon (about 70% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

Listed contracts ask whether ether touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC. No related contract settles near this date.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
3%
Within
82%
Up
15%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
4%
Within
81%
Up
15%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
3%
Within
83%
Up
14%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
1%
Within
91%
Up
8%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · Price history only

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal price at the target with zero median change and 28.6% volatility over the horizon (about 70% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

Listed contracts ask whether ether touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC. No related contract settles near this date.

Distribution of possible returns

AI average, built only from the threshold probabilities. Each band’s probability is spread evenly across its width, so the steps come from the thresholds, not from a modelled price path. Heights show probability per percentage point because bands differ in width.AI average, spread evenly within each threshold band. Heights are probability per percentage point.

Down band Within band Up band Selected threshold Reference, 0%

Histogram of the bands listed in the table below: probability per percentage point for each band between −50% and +50%.

Hover a band for its price range and probability. Not drawn: 3% below −50% ($1,500) and 15% above +50% ($4,500).

Show as a tableHide table
The distribution as a table
Return at target Price Prob. Per point
Below −50% Below $1,500 3% —
−50% to −10% $1,500–$2,700 31% 0.79
−10% to −5% $2,700–$2,850 6% 1.16
−5% to −1% $2,850–$2,970 5% 1.15
−1% to +1% $2,970–$3,030 2% 1.13
+1% to +5% $3,030–$3,150 4% 1.11
+5% to +10% $3,150–$3,300 5% 1.05
+10% to +50% $3,300–$4,500 28% 0.70
Above +50% Above $4,500 15% —
Total 100%

Why these estimates?

Factors the models cited for this target date. Each item says whether it is a reported fact or the model’s inference.

What could push the price higher?

  1. Spot ETF demand Model inference

    Continued net inflows into US spot ether ETFs would add steady buying before the target date. 1

  2. [Reported fact] Reported fact

    [Fact quoted from source 2 with its own date, for example a published fund-flow figure.] 2

What could push it lower?

  1. Tighter financial conditions Model inference

    If US yields rise into the 9 Dec Federal Reserve decision, the models expect pressure on ether alongside other risk assets. 3 7

  2. Regulatory setback Model inference

    An adverse US decision affecting crypto exchanges or ETFs before the target date would likely weigh on the price. 4

  3. [Reported fact] Reported fact

    [Fact quoted from source 5 with its own date.] 5

Events before the target date

Scheduled dates come from official calendars. Scenarios are hypothetical and have no date.

Confirmed dates

  1. 9 Dec 2026

    US Federal Reserve policy decision

    FOMC meeting 8–9 Dec; statement at 2:00 p.m. ET. Federal Reserve calendar

    Confirmed date

  2. 17 Dec 2026

    ECB monetary policy meeting

    Decision followed by a press conference. ECB meeting calendar

    Confirmed date

  3. 31 Dec 202623:59 UTC

    Target observation

    The ETH/USD price at this time settles this forecast.

    Forecast target

  4. 26–27 Jan 2027

    US Federal Reserve meeting

    After the target date, so it cannot affect this outcome.

    After target

Hypothetical scenarios

  • A sharp risk-off move in global equities before the target date.

    Scenario · no date

  • An adverse US regulatory decision affecting crypto exchanges or ETFs.

    Scenario · no date

Prediction-market context

No matching market Related market: none Checked 31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC

Listed contracts ask whether ether touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC. No related contract settles near this date. Market evidence is left out rather than shown as 0%.

Options-implied (risk-neutral) estimates are a different kind of evidence and are not shown in this version. How sources are matched

What this forecast may miss

  • The path before the target. A move above $4,000 before the target date followed by a fall would not change the outcome.
  • News after 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC. It enters only when a new version is published.
  • Differences between venues. Individual exchanges can trade away from the reference price source.
  • Calibration. The AI average has not been adjusted using settled outcomes, and this pair has very little live history.
  • Market-implied views. The statistical reference is a simple baseline, not an options-implied (risk-neutral) estimate.

Forecast versions

Each version keeps its own reference price and source timestamps. Earlier versions are stored, never overwritten. Shown at ±10%; every version holds all four thresholds.

Stored versions of this forecast
Published Reference price Down / Within / Up at ±10% Version
31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC $3,000 35% / 22% / 43% Current version · viewing