Ethereum · ETH/USD

Forecast outcome — 31 Aug 2026

Settled

Forecast issued on 31 Jul 2026, 06:12 UTC

31 days before the target. This is the scored version, chosen by the documented evaluation rule. The original estimates below are unchanged.

Result

Original reference: $2,900; Observed 31 Jul 2026, 06:00 UTC
Target observation: $2,560; 31 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC · [Crypto price provider] aggregated reference observation
Realized return: −11.72%; Price at the target versus the reference
Outcome at ±1%: Down 1% or more; $2,871 or lower
Outcome at ±5%: Down 5% or more; $2,755 or lower
Outcome at ±10%: Down 10% or more; $2,610 or lower
Outcome at ±50%: Between −50% and +50%; $1,450 to $4,350

Movement threshold

1% 5% 10% 50%

1% — see every threshold 5% — see every threshold 10% — see every threshold 50% — see every threshold

One outcome is scored at each threshold. The page keeps all four.

Original forecast · AI average — uncalibrated

As published on 31 Jul 2026. Nothing here has been rewritten after the outcome.

Down 1% or more

48%

$2,871 or lower

Happened

Between −1% and +1%

$2,871 to $2,929

Did not happen

Up 1% or more

49%

$2,929 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 48% on the outcome that happened.

Down 5% or more

41%

$2,755 or lower

Happened

Between −5% and +5%

16%

$2,755 to $3,045

Did not happen

Up 5% or more

43%

$3,045 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 41% on the outcome that happened.

Down 10% or more

33%

$2,610 or lower

Happened

Between −10% and +10%

31%

$2,610 to $3,190

Did not happen

Up 10% or more

36%

$3,190 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 33% on the outcome that happened.

Down 50% or more

$1,450 or lower

Did not happen

Between −50% and +50%

92%

$1,450 to $4,350

Happened

Up 50% or more

$4,350 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 92% on the outcome that happened.

Score for this result

Brier score at ±1%: 0.517

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.48 − 1)² + (0.03 − 0)² + (0.49 − 0)² = 0.517

Brier score at ±5%: 0.556

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.41 − 1)² + (0.16 − 0)² + (0.43 − 0)² = 0.556

Brier score at ±10%: 0.672

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.33 − 1)² + (0.31 − 0)² + (0.36 − 0)² = 0.672

Brier score at ±50%: 0.010

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.01 − 0)² + (0.92 − 1)² + (0.07 − 0)² = 0.010

Each term is (forecast − actual)², where actual is 1 for the outcome that happened and 0 for the others. One result says little about skill. See the track record.

Outcome at every threshold

The realized return of −11.72% falls into a different category depending on the threshold.

Realized outcome and score for each threshold
Threshold	Outcome	Original Down / Within / Up	On outcome	Brier (0–2)
±1%	Down 1% or more $2,871 or lower	48% / 3% / 49%	48%	0.517
±5%	Down 5% or more $2,755 or lower	41% / 16% / 43%	41%	0.556
±10%	Down 10% or more $2,610 or lower	33% / 31% / 36%	33%	0.672
±50%	Between −50% and +50% $1,450 to $4,350	1% / 92% / 7%	92%	0.010

Values shown as <0.1% or >99.9% are rounded for display; the underlying values sum to 100%.

Scores by source

At ±1%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±1%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	48% / 3% / 49%	0.517
OpenAI	50% / 3% / 47%	0.474
Claude	46% / 3% / 51%	0.561
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	48% / 4% / 48%	0.502
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±5%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±5%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	41% / 16% / 43%	0.556
OpenAI	44% / 15% / 41%	0.512
Claude	39% / 16% / 45%	0.602
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	40% / 19% / 41%	0.560
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±10%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±10%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	33% / 31% / 36%	0.672
OpenAI	36% / 30% / 34%	0.623
Claude	31% / 32% / 37%	0.722
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	31% / 37% / 32%	0.726
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±50%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±50%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	1% / 92% / 7%	0.010
OpenAI	1% / 92% / 7%	0.011
Claude	1% / 93% / 6%	0.009
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	<0.1% / 97.5% / 2.5%	0.001
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

Which version is scored

One version was published for this date. The evaluation rule picks the scored version per target in advance, so the score never depends on which version happened to look best. Evaluation rules

Published versions for this target date
Issued	Lead time	Reference	±10% Down / Within / Up	Evaluation
31 Jul 2026, 06:12 UTC	31 days	$2,900	33% / 31% / 36%	Scored version

Each stored version keeps its own reference price and timestamps.

Later ETH/USD forecasts

This page stays at this address. Later dates have their own pages; you are not redirected.

31 Oct 2026 forecast 30 Nov 2026 forecast 31 Dec 2026 forecast

Before settlement

Between the target time and the arrival of the settlement price, this page shows a pending state instead of a result.

History

ETH/USD forecast history Forecast track record