Demo data

Year-end 2026 outlook

Bitcoin forecast for 31 Dec 2026

Archived version

Link to this forecast: https://futurenotset.com/crypto/btc-usd/forecast/2026-12-31/. This address always means 31 Dec 2026.

Reference price
$78,400 US dollars per bitcoin · frozen for this versionUSD per bitcoin · frozen
Dates and timesHide dates and times
Reference observed
24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Forecast published
24 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
Target
31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC · price at this time

Stored version from 24 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC. Reference price $78,400. These are not today's estimates.

View the current forecast
Movement threshold
1% — see every threshold 5% — see every threshold 10% — see every threshold 50% — see every threshold

Research estimate AI average · uncalibrated

AI average · uncalibrated Two research runs, by OpenAI and Claude. Each one searches news, market data and official calendars, cites what it used, then estimates. Weighted equally. Price at 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC.

±1% from $78,400 ±5% from $78,400 ±10% from $78,400 ±50% from $78,400

Down 1% or more

49%

$77,616 or lower

Between −1% and +1%

3%

$77,616 to $79,184

Up 1% or more

48%

$79,184 or higher

Down 1% or more

$77,616 or lower

49%

Between −1% and +1%

$77,616 to $79,184

3%

Up 1% or more

$79,184 or higher

48%

The most likely of the three outcomes is down 1% or more, at 49%. Down 49% · Within 3% · Up 48% at ±1%.

Down 5% or more

44%

$74,480 or lower

Between −5% and +5%

13%

$74,480 to $82,320

Up 5% or more

43%

$82,320 or higher

Down 5% or more

$74,480 or lower

44%

Between −5% and +5%

$74,480 to $82,320

13%

Up 5% or more

$82,320 or higher

43%

The most likely of the three outcomes is down 5% or more, at 44%. Down 44% · Within 13% · Up 43% at ±5%.

Down 10% or more

37%

$70,560 or lower

Between −10% and +10%

26%

$70,560 to $86,240

Up 10% or more

37%

$86,240 or higher

Down 10% or more

$70,560 or lower

37%

Between −10% and +10%

$70,560 to $86,240

26%

Up 10% or more

$86,240 or higher

37%

The most likely of the three outcomes is down 10% or more, at 37%. Down 37% · Within 26% · Up 37% at ±10%.

Down 50% or more

2%

$39,200 or lower

Between −50% and +50%

89%

$39,200 to $117,600

Up 50% or more

9%

$117,600 or higher

Down 50% or more

$39,200 or lower

2%

Between −50% and +50%

$39,200 to $117,600

89%

Up 50% or more

$117,600 or higher

9%

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −50% and +50%, at 89%. Down 2% · Within 89% · Up 9% at ±50%.

How boundaries are counted

Down includes its boundary: a price of exactly $77,616 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a price of exactly $79,184 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between $77,616 and $79,184. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a price of exactly $74,480 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a price of exactly $82,320 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between $74,480 and $82,320. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a price of exactly $70,560 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a price of exactly $86,240 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between $70,560 and $86,240. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a price of exactly $39,200 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a price of exactly $117,600 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between $39,200 and $117,600. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

The price on the target date, not whether a level is touched before it. Probability estimates, not guarantees. Methodology and limitations.

BTC/USD · 31 Dec · ±1% Down 49%, within 3%, up 48%
BTC/USD · 31 Dec · ±5% Down 44%, within 13%, up 43%
BTC/USD · 31 Dec · ±10% Down 37%, within 26%, up 37%
BTC/USD · 31 Dec · ±50% Down 2%, within 89%, up 9%

Price so far and forecast range

BTC/USD since 24 Jul, then where the research estimate puts the price on 31 Dec 2026.

Middle estimate
$77,900
Even odds above or below
50% chance between
$63,600 – $95,600
25th to 75th percentile
80% chance between
$51,200 – $116,500
10th to 90th percentile
$120k$100k$80k$60k$40k 24 Jul31 Aug30 Sep31 Oct30 Nov31 Dec PRICE HISTORYFORECAST RANGETARGET +1% · $79,184 −1% · $77,616 +5% · $82,320 −5% · $74,480 +10% · $86,240 −10% · $70,560 +50% · $117,600 −50% · $39,200 90th · $116,500 75th · $95,600 Median · $77,900 25th · $63,600 10th · $51,200 $78,400 $120k$100k$80k$60k$40k 24 Jul31 Aug30 Sep31 Oct30 Nov31 Dec +1% · $79,184 −1% · $77,616 +5% · $82,320 −5% · $74,480 +10% · $86,240 −10% · $70,560 +50% · $117,600 −50% · $39,200 $78,400
The forecast is only for 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC; the shading between 24 Oct and 31 Dec is interpolated for readability, not a forecast of the path. Percentiles come from the AI average, spread evenly within each threshold band. The models put 74% of the probability outside ±10%.
Chart data as a table
Forecast percentiles for 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC (AI average)
PercentilePrice
10th$51,200
25th$63,600
Median (50th)$77,900
75th$95,600
90th$116,500
BTC/USD price history, month-ends and the reference date
DatePrice
24 Jul 2026$78,695
31 Jul 2026$74,500
31 Aug 2026$83,400
30 Sep 2026$77,100
24 Oct 2026$78,400

All movement thresholds

AI average for the price on 31 Dec 2026, measured from the $78,400 reference. All four thresholds are on this page; choosing one updates the panels above.

AI average probabilities for each movement threshold
ThresholdMove Down Within Up Selection
±1% 49% Down 1% or more: $77,616 or lower 3% Between −1% and +1%: $77,616 to $79,184 48% Up 1% or more: $79,184 or higher Selected Show ±1%
±5% 44% Down 5% or more: $74,480 or lower 13% Between −5% and +5%: $74,480 to $82,320 43% Up 5% or more: $82,320 or higher Selected Show ±5%
±10% 37% Down 10% or more: $70,560 or lower 26% Between −10% and +10%: $70,560 to $86,240 37% Up 10% or more: $86,240 or higher Selected Show ±10%
±50% 2% Down 50% or more: $39,200 or lower 89% Between −50% and +50%: $39,200 to $117,600 9% Up 50% or more: $117,600 or higher Selected Show ±50%

Within ranges exclude both boundaries. Wider thresholds always have a larger Within share: the estimates nest consistently.

Compare sources

Selected threshold ±1%. Every source uses the same event and the same $78,400 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 17 percentage points at ±1%.

Selected threshold ±5%. Every source uses the same event and the same $78,400 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 17 percentage points at ±5%.

Selected threshold ±10%. Every source uses the same event and the same $78,400 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 16 percentage points at ±10%.

Selected threshold ±50%. Every source uses the same event and the same $78,400 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 7 percentage points at ±50%.

Down, within and up probabilities by source at the selected threshold
Source Down Within Up Updated Coverage Details
AI average Average · uncalibrated 49%3%48% 24 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 41%3%56% 24 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 58%3%39% 24 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 48%4%48% 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC FreshPrice history only Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated 44%13%43% 24 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 36%13%51% 24 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 52%14%34% 24 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 41%17%42% 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC FreshPrice history only Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated 37%26%37% 24 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 30%25%45% 24 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 44%27%29% 24 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 33%33%34% 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC FreshPrice history only Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated 2%89%9% 24 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 2%85%13% 24 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 2%92%6% 24 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 0.2%95.3%4.5% 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC FreshPrice history only Details: Statistical reference — method
Prediction markets No matching market Listed contracts ask whether bitcoin touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC. Checked 31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC. See related contract
Source details
AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 24 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 24 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal price at the target with zero median change and 23.7% volatility over the horizon (about 55% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
49%
Within
3%
Up
48%

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
41%
Within
3%
Up
56%

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 24 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
58%
Within
3%
Up
39%

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 24 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
48%
Within
4%
Up
48%

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · Price history only

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal price at the target with zero median change and 23.7% volatility over the horizon (about 55% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

Listed contracts ask whether bitcoin touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC.

See related contract

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
44%
Within
13%
Up
43%

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
36%
Within
13%
Up
51%

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 24 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
52%
Within
14%
Up
34%

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 24 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
41%
Within
17%
Up
42%

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · Price history only

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal price at the target with zero median change and 23.7% volatility over the horizon (about 55% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

Listed contracts ask whether bitcoin touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC.

See related contract

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
37%
Within
26%
Up
37%

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
30%
Within
25%
Up
45%

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 24 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
44%
Within
27%
Up
29%

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 24 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
33%
Within
33%
Up
34%

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · Price history only

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal price at the target with zero median change and 23.7% volatility over the horizon (about 55% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

Listed contracts ask whether bitcoin touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC.

See related contract

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
2%
Within
89%
Up
9%

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
2%
Within
85%
Up
13%

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 24 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
2%
Within
92%
Up
6%

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 24 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
0.2%
Within
95.3%
Up
4.5%

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · Price history only

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal price at the target with zero median change and 23.7% volatility over the horizon (about 55% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

Listed contracts ask whether bitcoin touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC.

See related contract

Distribution of possible returns

AI average, built only from the threshold probabilities. Each band’s probability is spread evenly across its width, so the steps come from the thresholds, not from a modelled price path. Heights show probability per percentage point because bands differ in width.AI average, spread evenly within each threshold band. Heights are probability per percentage point.

Down band Within band Up band Selected threshold Reference, 0%

Histogram of the bands listed in the table below: probability per percentage point for each band between −50% and +50%.

Hover a band for its price range and probability. Not drawn: 2% below −50% ($39,200) and 9% above +50% ($117,600).

Show as a tableHide table
The distribution as a table
Return at target Price Prob. Per point
Below −50% Below $39,200 2% —
−50% to −10% $39,200–$70,560 35% 0.87
−10% to −5% $70,560–$74,480 7% 1.41
−5% to −1% $74,480–$77,616 6% 1.38
−1% to +1% $77,616–$79,184 3% 1.34
+1% to +5% $79,184–$82,320 5% 1.29
+5% to +10% $82,320–$86,240 6% 1.20
+10% to +50% $86,240–$117,600 27% 0.68
Above +50% Above $117,600 9% —
Total 100%

Why these estimates?

Factors the models cited for this target date. Each item says whether it is a reported fact or the model’s inference.

What could push the price higher?

  1. Spot ETF demand Model inference

    Continued net inflows into US spot bitcoin ETFs would add steady buying before the target date. 1

  2. [Reported fact] Reported fact

    [Fact quoted from source 2 with its own date, for example a published fund-flow figure.] 2

What could push it lower?

  1. Tighter financial conditions Model inference

    If US yields rise into the 9 Dec Federal Reserve decision, the models expect pressure on bitcoin alongside other risk assets. 3 7

  2. Regulatory setback Model inference

    An adverse US decision affecting crypto exchanges or ETFs before the target date would likely weigh on the price. 4

  3. [Reported fact] Reported fact

    [Fact quoted from source 5 with its own date.] 5

Events before the target date

Scheduled dates come from official calendars. Scenarios are hypothetical and have no date.

Confirmed dates

  1. 9 Dec 2026

    US Federal Reserve policy decision

    FOMC meeting 8–9 Dec; statement at 2:00 p.m. ET. Federal Reserve calendar

    Confirmed date

  2. 17 Dec 2026

    ECB monetary policy meeting

    Decision followed by a press conference. ECB meeting calendar

    Confirmed date

  3. 31 Dec 202623:59 UTC

    Target observation

    The BTC/USD price at this time settles this forecast.

    Forecast target

  4. 26–27 Jan 2027

    US Federal Reserve meeting

    After the target date, so it cannot affect this outcome.

    After target

Hypothetical scenarios

  • A sharp risk-off move in global equities before the target date.

    Scenario · no date

  • An adverse US regulatory decision affecting crypto exchanges or ETFs.

    Scenario · no date

Prediction-market context

We look for contracts that settle on the same asset, time, price source and threshold. None exists for this event, so no market estimate appears in the comparison above.

Exact match: none Related market: 1 contract Derived estimate: not available Checked 31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC

Not the same question as this forecast

  • It asks whether bitcoin touches $100,000 at any time before the deadline. This page is about the price at 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC.
  • This market uses a different settlement source: one exchange's BTC/USDT trades.
  • Its deadline is 11:59 p.m. US Eastern Time, not 23:59 UTC.
Related market Synthetic fixture — not a real contract or quote

“Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by 31 Dec 2026?”

Platform
Polymarket (example)
Quote
Yes 18¢ · implies 18%
Spread
2¢ (17¢ bid / 19¢ ask)
Depth
$41,200 within 2¢ of mid
Updated
31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC

Rules, summarised

Resolves Yes if any one-minute candle on [exchange] BTC/USDT trades at or above $100,000 before 11:59 p.m. ET on 31 Dec 2026. View the contract on the platform (placeholder link).

Exact match: same asset, time, price source and threshold. Related market: a different question, shown for context only. Derived estimate: combined from several contracts with a documented method.

What this forecast may miss

  • The path before the target. A move above $100,000 before the target date followed by a fall would not change the outcome.
  • News after 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC. It enters only when a new version is published.
  • Differences between venues. Individual exchanges can trade away from the reference price source.
  • Calibration. The AI average has not been adjusted using settled outcomes, and this pair has very little live history.
  • Market-implied views. The statistical reference is a simple baseline, not an options-implied (risk-neutral) estimate.

Forecast versions

Each version keeps its own reference price and source timestamps. Earlier versions are stored, never overwritten. Shown at ±10%; every version holds all four thresholds.

Stored versions of this forecast
Published Reference price Down / Within / Up at ±10% Version
31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC $80,000 37% / 28% / 35% View current version
24 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC $78,400 37% / 26% / 37% Stored version · viewing
17 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC $82,100 40% / 26% / 34% View stored version