Bitcoin · BTC/USD

Forecast outcome — 30 Sep 2026

Settled

Forecast issued on 31 Jul 2026, 06:12 UTC

61 days before the target. This is the scored version, chosen by the documented evaluation rule. The original estimates below are unchanged.

Result

Original reference: $74,500; Observed 31 Jul 2026, 06:00 UTC
Target observation: $77,100; 30 Sep 2026, 23:59 UTC · [Crypto price provider] aggregated reference observation
Realized return: +3.49%; Price at the target versus the reference
Outcome at ±1%: Up 1% or more; $75,245 or higher
Outcome at ±5%: Between −5% and +5%; $70,775 to $78,225
Outcome at ±10%: Between −10% and +10%; $67,050 to $81,950
Outcome at ±50%: Between −50% and +50%; $37,250 to $111,750

Movement threshold

1% 5% 10% 50%

1% — see every threshold 5% — see every threshold 10% — see every threshold 50% — see every threshold

One outcome is scored at each threshold. The page keeps all four.

Original forecast · AI average — uncalibrated

As published on 31 Jul 2026. Nothing here has been rewritten after the outcome.

Down 1% or more

52%

$73,755 or lower

Did not happen

Between −1% and +1%

$73,755 to $75,245

Did not happen

Up 1% or more

45%

$75,245 or higher

Happened

The forecast put 45% on the outcome that happened.

Down 5% or more

46%

$70,775 or lower

Did not happen

Between −5% and +5%

14%

$70,775 to $78,225

Happened

Up 5% or more

40%

$78,225 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 14% on the outcome that happened.

Down 10% or more

38%

$67,050 or lower

Did not happen

Between −10% and +10%

28%

$67,050 to $81,950

Happened

Up 10% or more

34%

$81,950 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 28% on the outcome that happened.

Down 50% or more

$37,250 or lower

Did not happen

Between −50% and +50%

91%

$37,250 to $111,750

Happened

Up 50% or more

$111,750 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 91% on the outcome that happened.

Score for this result

Brier score at ±1%: 0.568

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.52 − 0)² + (0.03 − 0)² + (0.45 − 1)² = 0.568

Brier score at ±5%: 1.104

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.46 − 0)² + (0.14 − 1)² + (0.40 − 0)² = 1.104

Brier score at ±10%: 0.776

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.38 − 0)² + (0.28 − 1)² + (0.34 − 0)² = 0.776

Brier score at ±50%: 0.014

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.02 − 0)² + (0.91 − 1)² + (0.07 − 0)² = 0.014

Each term is (forecast − actual)², where actual is 1 for the outcome that happened and 0 for the others. One result says little about skill. See the track record.

Outcome at every threshold

The realized return of +3.49% falls into a different category depending on the threshold.

Realized outcome and score for each threshold
Threshold	Outcome	Original Down / Within / Up	On outcome	Brier (0–2)
±1%	Up 1% or more $75,245 or higher	52% / 3% / 45%	45%	0.568
±5%	Between −5% and +5% $70,775 to $78,225	46% / 14% / 40%	14%	1.104
±10%	Between −10% and +10% $67,050 to $81,950	38% / 28% / 34%	28%	0.776
±50%	Between −50% and +50% $37,250 to $111,750	2% / 91% / 7%	91%	0.014

Scores by source

At ±1%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±1%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	52% / 3% / 45%	0.568
OpenAI	46% / 3% / 51%	0.460
Claude	57% / 3% / 40%	0.688
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	48% / 4% / 48%	0.502
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±5%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±5%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	46% / 14% / 40%	1.104
OpenAI	41% / 14% / 45%	1.113
Claude	51% / 15% / 34%	1.107
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	41% / 18% / 41%	1.021
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±10%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±10%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	38% / 28% / 34%	0.776
OpenAI	34% / 27% / 39%	0.792
Claude	43% / 29% / 28%	0.770
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	32% / 34% / 34%	0.648
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±50%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±50%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	2% / 91% / 7%	0.014
OpenAI	2% / 89% / 9%	0.022
Claude	2% / 93% / 5%	0.007
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	0.1% / 96.2% / 3.7%	0.003
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

Which version is scored

One version was published for this date. The evaluation rule picks the scored version per target in advance, so the score never depends on which version happened to look best. Evaluation rules

Published versions for this target date
Issued	Lead time	Reference	±10% Down / Within / Up	Evaluation
31 Jul 2026, 06:12 UTC	61 days	$74,500	38% / 28% / 34%	Scored version

Each stored version keeps its own reference price and timestamps.

Later BTC/USD forecasts

This page stays at this address. Later dates have their own pages; you are not redirected.

31 Oct 2026 forecast 30 Nov 2026 forecast 31 Dec 2026 forecast

Before settlement

Between the target time and the arrival of the settlement price, this page shows a pending state instead of a result.

History

BTC/USD forecast history Forecast track record