Demo data

Bitcoin price forecast

BTC/USD — US dollars per bitcoin

Probability estimates for where the BTC/USD price will be on specific future dates, from two AI models, a statistical reference and matching prediction markets where they exist.

Reference price
$80,000 US dollars per bitcoin
Observed
31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Latest forecasts published
31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC

Choose a target date

Every preset is a month-end date. The date shown is the one the forecast is about.

AI average — uncalibrated · ±1% · ±5% · ±10% · ±50%

Price on 31 Dec 2026

Fresh
Movement threshold
Down 1% or more
51%
$79,200 or lower
Between ±1%
3%
$79,200 to $80,800
Up 1% or more
46%
$80,800 or higher

Down 51%, within 3%, up 46%.

Down 5% or more
45%
$76,000 or lower
Between ±5%
14%
$76,000 to $84,000
Up 5% or more
41%
$84,000 or higher

Down 45%, within 14%, up 41%.

Down 10% or more
37%
$72,000 or lower
Between ±10%
28%
$72,000 to $88,000
Up 10% or more
35%
$88,000 or higher

Down 37%, within 28%, up 35%.

Down 50% or more
2%
$40,000 or lower
Between ±50%
91%
$40,000 to $120,000
Up 50% or more
7%
$120,000 or higher

Down 2%, within 91%, up 7%.

Default threshold ±10% for crypto. The forecast page has all four thresholds, source comparison and evidence.

Open the forecast for 31 Dec 2026

/crypto/btc-usd/forecast/2026-12-31/

All four thresholds · 31 Dec 2026 · AI average
ThresholdDownWithinUp
±1% 51% 3% 46%
±5% 45% 14% 41%
±10% 37% 28% 35%
±50% 2% 91% 7%

Published forecast dates

Each date has its own page and address. Shown at ±1%±5%±10%±50%.

  • End of this month

    31 Oct 2026

    Down 36% · Within 23% · Up 41%

    Down 36%, within 23%, up 41%.

    Down 7% · Within 83% · Up 10%

    Down 7%, within 83%, up 10%.

    Down 1% · Within 98% · Up 1%

    Down 1%, within 98%, up 1%.

    Down <0.1% · Within >99.9% · Up <0.1%

    Down <0.1%, within >99.9%, up <0.1%.

    Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC

  • End of next month

    30 Nov 2026

    Down 44% · Within 4% · Up 52%

    Down 44%, within 4%, up 52%.

    Down 36% · Within 20% · Up 44%

    Down 36%, within 20%, up 44%.

    Down 26% · Within 39% · Up 35%

    Down 26%, within 39%, up 35%.

    Down 0.3% · Within 96.3% · Up 3.4%

    Down 0.3%, within 96.3%, up 3.4%.

    Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC

  • End of year

    31 Dec 2026

    Down 51% · Within 3% · Up 46%

    Down 51%, within 3%, up 46%.

    Down 45% · Within 14% · Up 41%

    Down 45%, within 14%, up 41%.

    Down 37% · Within 28% · Up 35%

    Down 37%, within 28%, up 35%.

    Down 2% · Within 91% · Up 7%

    Down 2%, within 91%, up 7%.

    Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC

  • 3 months (month-end)

    31 Jan 2027

    Down 43% · Within 2% · Up 55%

    Down 43%, within 2%, up 55%.

    Down 38% · Within 12% · Up 50%

    Down 38%, within 12%, up 50%.

    Down 32% · Within 23% · Up 45%

    Down 32%, within 23%, up 45%.

    Down 3% · Within 82% · Up 15%

    Down 3%, within 82%, up 15%.

    Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC

  • 6 months (month-end)

    30 Apr 2027

    Down 50% · Within 2% · Up 48%

    Down 50%, within 2%, up 48%.

    Down 47% · Within 8% · Up 45%

    Down 47%, within 8%, up 45%.

    Down 42% · Within 17% · Up 41%

    Down 42%, within 17%, up 41%.

    Down 9% · Within 72% · Up 19%

    Down 9%, within 72%, up 19%.

    Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC

12 months (month-end) · 31 Oct 2027 — scheduled, not yet generated.

What the models cite for bitcoin

Recurring drivers across the published dates. Each forecast page lists its own cited evidence.

  • Spot ETF demand Model inference

    Points higher · cited for all 5 dates. Sources 1

  • Tighter financial conditions Model inference

    Points lower · cited for all 5 dates. Sources 3

  • Regulatory setback Model inference

    Points lower · cited for all 5 dates. Sources 4

Source coverage

What is available for BTC/USD right now.

Source coverage for BTC/USD
SourceStatusNotes
OpenAI Fresh All 5 dates
Claude Fresh All 5 dates
Statistical reference Fresh Synthetic fixture in this prototype
Prediction markets Related market No exact match for any date; 1 related touch-price contract

Recent settled forecasts

2 settled so far — far too few to judge skill. Shown at ±1%±5%±10%±50%.

  • 30 Sep 2026 Actual +3.49% from $74,500

    Forecast 52% / 3% / 45% · Up 1% or more · Brier 0.568

    Forecast 46% / 14% / 40% · Between −5% and +5% · Brier 1.104

    Forecast 38% / 28% / 34% · Between −10% and +10% · Brier 0.776

    Forecast 2% / 91% / 7% · Between −50% and +50% · Brier 0.014

  • 31 Aug 2026 Actual +11.95% from $74,500

    Forecast 49% / 4% / 47% · Up 1% or more · Brier 0.518

    Forecast 41% / 20% / 39% · Up 5% or more · Brier 0.570

    Forecast 30% / 39% / 31% · Up 10% or more · Brier 0.719

    Forecast 0.3% / 96.6% / 3.1% · Between −50% and +50% · Brier 0.002

BTC/USD forecast history

How these forecasts work