Bitcoin price forecast
BTC/USD — US dollars per bitcoin
Probability estimates for where the BTC/USD price will be on specific future dates, from two AI models, a statistical reference and matching prediction markets where they exist.
Choose a target date
- End of this month · 31 Oct 2026Same day as publication
- End of next month · 30 Nov 202630 days ahead
- End of year · 31 Dec 202661 days ahead
- 3 months (month-end) · 31 Jan 202792 days ahead
- 6 months (month-end) · 30 Apr 2027181 days ahead
- 12 months (month-end) · 31 Oct 2027Scheduled, not yet generated
Every preset is a month-end date. The date shown is the one the forecast is about.
AI average — uncalibrated · ±1% · ±5% · ±10% · ±50%
Price on 31 Dec 2026
- Down 1% or more
- 51%
- $79,200 or lower
- Between ±1%
- 3%
- $79,200 to $80,800
- Up 1% or more
- 46%
- $80,800 or higher
- Down 5% or more
- 45%
- $76,000 or lower
- Between ±5%
- 14%
- $76,000 to $84,000
- Up 5% or more
- 41%
- $84,000 or higher
- Down 10% or more
- 37%
- $72,000 or lower
- Between ±10%
- 28%
- $72,000 to $88,000
- Up 10% or more
- 35%
- $88,000 or higher
- Down 50% or more
- 2%
- $40,000 or lower
- Between ±50%
- 91%
- $40,000 to $120,000
- Up 50% or more
- 7%
- $120,000 or higher
Default threshold ±10% for crypto. The forecast page has all four thresholds, source comparison and evidence.
Open the forecast for 31 Dec 2026/crypto/btc-usd/forecast/2026-12-31/
| Threshold | Down | Within | Up |
|---|---|---|---|
| ±1% | 51% | 3% | 46% |
| ±5% | 45% | 14% | 41% |
| ±10% | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| ±50% | 2% | 91% | 7% |
Published forecast dates
Each date has its own page and address. Shown at ±1%±5%±10%±50%.
-
End of this month
31 Oct 2026
Down 36% · Within 23% · Up 41%
Down 7% · Within 83% · Up 10%
Down 1% · Within 98% · Up 1%
Down <0.1% · Within >99.9% · Up <0.1%
Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC
-
End of next month
30 Nov 2026
Down 44% · Within 4% · Up 52%
Down 36% · Within 20% · Up 44%
Down 26% · Within 39% · Up 35%
Down 0.3% · Within 96.3% · Up 3.4%
Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC
-
End of year
31 Dec 2026
Down 51% · Within 3% · Up 46%
Down 45% · Within 14% · Up 41%
Down 37% · Within 28% · Up 35%
Down 2% · Within 91% · Up 7%
Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC
-
3 months (month-end)
31 Jan 2027
Down 43% · Within 2% · Up 55%
Down 38% · Within 12% · Up 50%
Down 32% · Within 23% · Up 45%
Down 3% · Within 82% · Up 15%
Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC
-
6 months (month-end)
30 Apr 2027
Down 50% · Within 2% · Up 48%
Down 47% · Within 8% · Up 45%
Down 42% · Within 17% · Up 41%
Down 9% · Within 72% · Up 19%
Published 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC
12 months (month-end) · 31 Oct 2027 — scheduled, not yet generated.
What the models cite for bitcoin
Recurring drivers across the published dates. Each forecast page lists its own cited evidence.
Source coverage
What is available for BTC/USD right now.
| Source | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | Fresh | All 5 dates |
| Claude | Fresh | All 5 dates |
| Statistical reference | Fresh | Synthetic fixture in this prototype |
| Prediction markets | Related market | No exact match for any date; 1 related touch-price contract |
Recent settled forecasts
2 settled so far — far too few to judge skill. Shown at ±1%±5%±10%±50%.
-
30 Sep 2026 Actual +3.49% from $74,500
Forecast 52% / 3% / 45% · Up 1% or more · Brier 0.568
Forecast 46% / 14% / 40% · Between −5% and +5% · Brier 1.104
Forecast 38% / 28% / 34% · Between −10% and +10% · Brier 0.776
Forecast 2% / 91% / 7% · Between −50% and +50% · Brier 0.014
-
31 Aug 2026 Actual +11.95% from $74,500
Forecast 49% / 4% / 47% · Up 1% or more · Brier 0.518
Forecast 41% / 20% / 39% · Up 5% or more · Brier 0.570
Forecast 30% / 39% / 31% · Up 10% or more · Brier 0.719
Forecast 0.3% / 96.6% / 3.1% · Between −50% and +50% · Brier 0.002