Bitcoin · BTC/USD

Forecast outcome — 31 Aug 2026

Settled

Forecast issued on 31 Jul 2026, 06:12 UTC

31 days before the target. This is the scored version, chosen by the documented evaluation rule. The original estimates below are unchanged.

Result

Original reference: $74,500; Observed 31 Jul 2026, 06:00 UTC
Target observation: $83,400; 31 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC · [Crypto price provider] aggregated reference observation
Realized return: +11.95%; Price at the target versus the reference
Outcome at ±1%: Up 1% or more; $75,245 or higher
Outcome at ±5%: Up 5% or more; $78,225 or higher
Outcome at ±10%: Up 10% or more; $81,950 or higher
Outcome at ±50%: Between −50% and +50%; $37,250 to $111,750

Movement threshold

1% 5% 10% 50%

1% — see every threshold 5% — see every threshold 10% — see every threshold 50% — see every threshold

One outcome is scored at each threshold. The page keeps all four.

Original forecast · AI average — uncalibrated

As published on 31 Jul 2026. Nothing here has been rewritten after the outcome.

Down 1% or more

49%

$73,755 or lower

Did not happen

Between −1% and +1%

$73,755 to $75,245

Did not happen

Up 1% or more

47%

$75,245 or higher

Happened

The forecast put 47% on the outcome that happened.

Down 5% or more

41%

$70,775 or lower

Did not happen

Between −5% and +5%

20%

$70,775 to $78,225

Did not happen

Up 5% or more

39%

$78,225 or higher

Happened

The forecast put 39% on the outcome that happened.

Down 10% or more

30%

$67,050 or lower

Did not happen

Between −10% and +10%

39%

$67,050 to $81,950

Did not happen

Up 10% or more

31%

$81,950 or higher

Happened

The forecast put 31% on the outcome that happened.

Down 50% or more

0.3%

$37,250 or lower

Did not happen

Between −50% and +50%

96.6%

$37,250 to $111,750

Happened

Up 50% or more

3.1%

$111,750 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 96.6% on the outcome that happened.

Score for this result

Brier score at ±1%: 0.518

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.49 − 0)² + (0.04 − 0)² + (0.47 − 1)² = 0.518

Brier score at ±5%: 0.570

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.41 − 0)² + (0.20 − 0)² + (0.40 − 1)² = 0.570

Brier score at ±10%: 0.719

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.31 − 0)² + (0.39 − 0)² + (0.31 − 1)² = 0.719

Brier score at ±50%: 0.002

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.00 − 0)² + (0.97 − 1)² + (0.03 − 0)² = 0.002

Each term is (forecast − actual)², where actual is 1 for the outcome that happened and 0 for the others. One result says little about skill. See the track record.

Outcome at every threshold

The realized return of +11.95% falls into a different category depending on the threshold.

Realized outcome and score for each threshold
Threshold	Outcome	Original Down / Within / Up	On outcome	Brier (0–2)
±1%	Up 1% or more $75,245 or higher	49% / 4% / 47%	47%	0.518
±5%	Up 5% or more $78,225 or higher	41% / 20% / 39%	39%	0.570
±10%	Up 10% or more $81,950 or higher	30% / 39% / 31%	31%	0.719
±50%	Between −50% and +50% $37,250 to $111,750	0.3% / 96.6% / 3.1%	96.6%	0.002

Values shown as <0.1% or >99.9% are rounded for display; the underlying values sum to 100%.

Scores by source

At ±1%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±1%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	49% / 4% / 47%	0.518
OpenAI	44% / 4% / 52%	0.434
Claude	53% / 4% / 43%	0.610
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	47% / 5% / 48%	0.503
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±5%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±5%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	41% / 20% / 39%	0.570
OpenAI	37% / 19% / 44%	0.485
Claude	44% / 21% / 35%	0.662
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	38% / 24% / 38%	0.582
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±10%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±10%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	30% / 39% / 31%	0.719
OpenAI	28% / 37% / 35%	0.632
Claude	34% / 40% / 26%	0.812
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	26% / 46% / 28%	0.802
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±50%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±50%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	0.3% / 96.6% / 3.1%	0.002
OpenAI	0.3% / 95.5% / 4.2%	0.004
Claude	0.3% / 97.6% / 2.1%	0.001
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	<0.1% / 99.4% / 0.6%	0.000
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

Which version is scored

One version was published for this date. The evaluation rule picks the scored version per target in advance, so the score never depends on which version happened to look best. Evaluation rules

Published versions for this target date
Issued	Lead time	Reference	±10% Down / Within / Up	Evaluation
31 Jul 2026, 06:12 UTC	31 days	$74,500	30% / 39% / 31%	Scored version

Each stored version keeps its own reference price and timestamps.

Later BTC/USD forecasts

This page stays at this address. Later dates have their own pages; you are not redirected.

31 Oct 2026 forecast 30 Nov 2026 forecast 31 Dec 2026 forecast

Before settlement

Between the target time and the arrival of the settlement price, this page shows a pending state instead of a result.

History

BTC/USD forecast history Forecast track record