3-month outlook (month-end)
EUR/GBP forecast for 31 Jan 2027
Link to this forecast: https://futurenotset.com/forex/eur-gbp/forecast/2027-01-31/. This address always means 31 Jan 2027.
- Reference rate
- 0.8820 pounds per euro · ECB daily reference rate · frozenGBP per euro · frozen
Dates and timesHide dates and times
- Rate observed
- Friday, 30 Oct 2026 · ECB fixing, about 16:00 CET
- Forecast published
- 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · rate 15 h old
- Target
- 31 Jan 2027 · settles on the ECB rate for Friday, 29 Jan
Reference rate from 30 Oct. The ECB publishes no reference rates at weekends or on TARGET holidays. 31 Jan 2027 is a Sunday, so the outcome uses the last fixing on or before it, Friday, 29 Jan 2027.
Default for currency pairs: 1%
Research estimate AI average · uncalibrated
AI average · uncalibrated Two research runs, by OpenAI and Claude. Each one searches news, central-bank and market data, cites what it used, then estimates. Weighted equally. ECB reference rate for 29 Jan 2027.
Down 1% or more
35%
0.8732 or lower
Between −1% and +1%
21%
0.8732 to 0.8908
Up 1% or more
44%
0.8908 or higher
Down 1% or more
0.8732 or lower
35%
Between −1% and +1%
0.8732 to 0.8908
21%
Up 1% or more
0.8908 or higher
44%
Down 5% or more
8%
0.8379 or lower
Between −5% and +5%
80%
0.8379 to 0.9261
Up 5% or more
12%
0.9261 or higher
Down 5% or more
0.8379 or lower
8%
Between −5% and +5%
0.8379 to 0.9261
80%
Up 5% or more
0.9261 or higher
12%
Down 10% or more
1%
0.7938 or lower
Between −10% and +10%
98%
0.7938 to 0.9702
Up 10% or more
1%
0.9702 or higher
Down 10% or more
0.7938 or lower
1%
Between −10% and +10%
0.7938 to 0.9702
98%
Up 10% or more
0.9702 or higher
1%
Down 50% or more
<0.1%
0.4410 or lower
Between −50% and +50%
>99.9%
0.4410 to 1.3230
Up 50% or more
<0.1%
1.3230 or higher
Down 50% or more
0.4410 or lower
<0.1%
Between −50% and +50%
0.4410 to 1.3230
>99.9%
Up 50% or more
1.3230 or higher
<0.1%
How boundaries are counted
Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8732 counts as Down.
Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8908 counts as Up.
Within is strictly between 0.8732 and 0.8908. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.
Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8379 counts as Down.
Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.9261 counts as Up.
Within is strictly between 0.8379 and 0.9261. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.
Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.7938 counts as Down.
Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.9702 counts as Up.
Within is strictly between 0.7938 and 0.9702. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.
Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.4410 counts as Down.
Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 1.3230 counts as Up.
Within is strictly between 0.4410 and 1.3230. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.
The rate on the target date, not whether a level is touched before it. Probability estimates, not guarantees. Methodology and limitations.
Rate so far and forecast range
EUR/GBP since 31 Jul, then where the research estimate puts the rate on 31 Jan 2027.
- Middle estimate
- 0.8857
- Even odds above or below
- 50% chance between
- 0.8635 – 0.9102
- 25th to 75th percentile
- 80% chance between
- 0.8413 – 0.9348
- 10th to 90th percentile
Chart data as a table
| Percentile | Rate |
|---|---|
| 10th | 0.8413 |
| 25th | 0.8635 |
| Median (50th) | 0.8857 |
| 75th | 0.9102 |
| 90th | 0.9348 |
| Date | Rate |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 0.8425 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | 0.8324 |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 0.8520 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.8820 |
All movement thresholds
AI average for the ECB reference rate for Friday, 29 Jan 2027, from the 0.8820 reference. Rates are pounds per euro. All four thresholds are on this page; choosing one updates the panels above.
| ThresholdMove | Down | Within | Up | Selection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ±1% | 35% Down 1% or more: 0.8732 or lower | 21% Between −1% and +1%: 0.8732 to 0.8908 | 44% Up 1% or more: 0.8908 or higher | Selected Show ±1% |
| ±5% | 8% Down 5% or more: 0.8379 or lower | 80% Between −5% and +5%: 0.8379 to 0.9261 | 12% Up 5% or more: 0.9261 or higher | Selected Show ±5% |
| ±10% | 1% Down 10% or more: 0.7938 or lower | 98% Between −10% and +10%: 0.7938 to 0.9702 | 1% Up 10% or more: 0.9702 or higher | Selected Show ±10% |
| ±50% | <0.1% Down 50% or more: 0.4410 or lower | >99.9% Between −50% and +50%: 0.4410 to 1.3230 | <0.1% Up 50% or more: 1.3230 or higher | Selected Show ±50% |
Within ranges exclude both boundaries. Wider thresholds always have a larger Within share: the estimates nest consistently. A 50% move in a major currency pair is extremely unlikely; the estimate is shown rather than hidden so all four thresholds stay comparable. Values shown as “<0.1%” or “>99.9%” are bounds; the underlying values sum to 100%.
Compare sources
Selected threshold ±1%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8820 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 6 percentage points at ±1%.
Selected threshold ±5%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8820 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 4 percentage points at ±5%.
Selected threshold ±10%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8820 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 1 percentage point at ±10%.
Selected threshold ±50%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8820 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude give the same estimates at ±50%.
| Source | Down | Within | Up | Updated | Coverage | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI average Average · uncalibrated | 35% | 21% | 44% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC | Fresh2 of 2 models | Details: AI average — method |
| OpenAI Research run | 33% | 20% | 47% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC | Fresh4 cited sources | Details: OpenAI — run details |
| Claude Research run | 37% | 22% | 41% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC | Fresh4 cited sources | Details: Claude — run details |
| Statistical reference Synthetic fixture | 37% | 26% | 37% | 30 Oct 2026 fixing | FreshECB rate history | Details: Statistical reference — method |
| AI average Average · uncalibrated | 8% | 80% | 12% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC | Fresh2 of 2 models | Details: AI average — method |
| OpenAI Research run | 8% | 78% | 14% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC | Fresh4 cited sources | Details: OpenAI — run details |
| Claude Research run | 8% | 82% | 10% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC | Fresh4 cited sources | Details: Claude — run details |
| Statistical reference Synthetic fixture | 5% | 90% | 5% | 30 Oct 2026 fixing | FreshECB rate history | Details: Statistical reference — method |
| AI average Average · uncalibrated | 1% | 98% | 1% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC | Fresh2 of 2 models | Details: AI average — method |
| OpenAI Research run | 1% | 97% | 2% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC | Fresh4 cited sources | Details: OpenAI — run details |
| Claude Research run | 1% | 98% | 1% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC | Fresh4 cited sources | Details: Claude — run details |
| Statistical reference Synthetic fixture | <0.1% | 99.9% | 0.1% | 30 Oct 2026 fixing | FreshECB rate history | Details: Statistical reference — method |
| AI average Average · uncalibrated | <0.1% | >99.9% | <0.1% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC | Fresh2 of 2 models | Details: AI average — method |
| OpenAI Research run | <0.1% | >99.9% | <0.1% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC | Fresh4 cited sources | Details: OpenAI — run details |
| Claude Research run | <0.1% | >99.9% | <0.1% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC | Fresh4 cited sources | Details: Claude — run details |
| Statistical reference Synthetic fixture | <0.1% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 30 Oct 2026 fixing | FreshECB rate history | Details: Statistical reference — method |
AI average — method
Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.
Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.
OpenAI — run details
Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Claude — run details
Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Statistical reference — method
Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 3.0% volatility over the horizon (about 6% a year).
A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.
AI average
Average · uncalibrated- Down
- 35%
- Within
- 21%
- Up
- 44%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models
Details: AI average — method
Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.
Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.
OpenAI
Research run- Down
- 33%
- Within
- 20%
- Up
- 47%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources
Details: OpenAI — run details
Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Claude
Research run- Down
- 37%
- Within
- 22%
- Up
- 41%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources
Details: Claude — run details
Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Statistical reference
Synthetic fixture- Down
- 37%
- Within
- 26%
- Up
- 37%
Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history
Details: Statistical reference — method
Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 3.0% volatility over the horizon (about 6% a year).
A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.
Prediction markets
No matching marketNo contract on EUR/GBP settles near January 2027, and no related contract was found.
AI average
Average · uncalibrated- Down
- 8%
- Within
- 80%
- Up
- 12%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models
Details: AI average — method
Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.
Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.
OpenAI
Research run- Down
- 8%
- Within
- 78%
- Up
- 14%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources
Details: OpenAI — run details
Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Claude
Research run- Down
- 8%
- Within
- 82%
- Up
- 10%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources
Details: Claude — run details
Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Statistical reference
Synthetic fixture- Down
- 5%
- Within
- 90%
- Up
- 5%
Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history
Details: Statistical reference — method
Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 3.0% volatility over the horizon (about 6% a year).
A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.
Prediction markets
No matching marketNo contract on EUR/GBP settles near January 2027, and no related contract was found.
AI average
Average · uncalibrated- Down
- 1%
- Within
- 98%
- Up
- 1%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models
Details: AI average — method
Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.
Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.
OpenAI
Research run- Down
- 1%
- Within
- 97%
- Up
- 2%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources
Details: OpenAI — run details
Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Claude
Research run- Down
- 1%
- Within
- 98%
- Up
- 1%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources
Details: Claude — run details
Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Statistical reference
Synthetic fixture- Down
- <0.1%
- Within
- 99.9%
- Up
- 0.1%
Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history
Details: Statistical reference — method
Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 3.0% volatility over the horizon (about 6% a year).
A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.
Prediction markets
No matching marketNo contract on EUR/GBP settles near January 2027, and no related contract was found.
AI average
Average · uncalibrated- Down
- <0.1%
- Within
- >99.9%
- Up
- <0.1%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models
Details: AI average — method
Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.
Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.
OpenAI
Research run- Down
- <0.1%
- Within
- >99.9%
- Up
- <0.1%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources
Details: OpenAI — run details
Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Claude
Research run- Down
- <0.1%
- Within
- >99.9%
- Up
- <0.1%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources
Details: Claude — run details
Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Statistical reference
Synthetic fixture- Down
- <0.1%
- Within
- 100.0%
- Up
- 0.0%
Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history
Details: Statistical reference — method
Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 3.0% volatility over the horizon (about 6% a year).
A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.
Prediction markets
No matching marketNo contract on EUR/GBP settles near January 2027, and no related contract was found.
Distribution of possible moves
AI average, built from the threshold probabilities and spread evenly within each band. Heights show probability per percentage point.
Histogram of the bands listed in the table beside: probability per percentage point for each band between −10% and +10%.
Hover a band for its price range and probability. Not drawn: 0.8% of outcomes below −10% (0.7938) and 2% above +10% (0.9702). The ±50% boundaries (0.4410 and 1.3230) are far outside this axis.
| Change | Rate | Prob. | Per point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below −10% | Below 0.7938 | 0.8% | — |
| −10% to −5% | 0.7938–0.8379 | 7% | 1.39 |
| −5% to −1% | 0.8379–0.8732 | 27% | 6.83 |
| −1% to +1% | 0.8732–0.8908 | 21% | 10.61 |
| +1% to +5% | 0.8908–0.9261 | 32% | 7.93 |
| +5% to +10% | 0.9261–0.9702 | 10% | 2.09 |
| Above +10% | Above 0.9702 | 2% | — |
| Total | 100% |
Why these estimates?
Directional factors follow the quote (pounds per euro): “higher” means EUR/GBP rises. Each item says whether it is a reported fact or the model’s inference.
What could push EUR/GBP higher?
Events before the target date
Scheduled dates come from official calendars. Scenarios are hypothetical and have no date.
Scheduled dates
-
9 Dec 2026
US Federal Reserve policy decision
FOMC meeting 8–9 Dec; statement at 2:00 p.m. ET. Federal Reserve calendar
Confirmed date -
17 Dec 2026
ECB monetary policy meeting
Decision followed by a press conference. ECB meeting calendar
Confirmed date -
26–27 Jan 2027
US Federal Reserve meeting
Listed as tentative by third-party calendars; not yet confirmed on the Federal Reserve's own calendar.
Tentative date -
29 Jan 2027
Target observation
ECB reference rate for Friday, 29 Jan settles this forecast.
Forecast target -
4 Feb 2027
Next ECB monetary policy meeting
After the target date, so it cannot affect this outcome. ECB meeting calendar
After target
Hypothetical scenarios
-
A sudden global risk-off move that shifts demand toward safe-haven currencies.
Scenario · no date
Prediction-market context
No contract on EUR/GBP settles near January 2027, and no related contract was found. Market evidence is left out rather than shown as 0%.
Options-implied (risk-neutral) estimates are a different kind of evidence and are not shown in this version. How sources are matched
What this forecast may miss
- Moves between fixings. The ECB rate is one daily observation; market rates at other times can differ.
- Weekend news. Anything after 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC enters only with a new version.
- Calibration. Very few EUR/GBP forecasts have settled; the AI average is uncalibrated.
Forecast versions
Each version keeps its own reference rate and source timestamps. Earlier versions are stored, never overwritten. Shown at ±1%; every version holds all four thresholds.
| Published | Reference rate | Down / Within / Up at ±1% | Version |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC | 0.8820 · 30 Oct fixing | 35% / 21% / 44% | Current version · viewing |