Year-end 2026 outlook

EUR/GBP forecast for 31 Dec 2026

Fresh

Link to this forecast: https://futurenotset.com/forex/eur-gbp/forecast/2026-12-31/. This address always means 31 Dec 2026.

Reference rate: 0.8820 pounds per euro · ECB daily reference rate · frozenGBP per euro · frozen

Dates and timesHide dates and times

Rate observed: Friday, 30 Oct 2026 · ECB fixing, about 16:00 CET
Forecast published: 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · rate 15 h old
Target: 31 Dec 2026 · settles on the ECB rate for Thursday, 31 Dec

Reference rate from 30 Oct. The ECB publishes no reference rates at weekends or on TARGET holidays. The outcome uses the ECB fixing of Thursday, 31 Dec 2026.

Pair, target date and threshold: EUR/GBP31 Dec 2026±1%±5%±10%±50% ChangeDone

Pair

Movement threshold

1% 5% 10% 50%

1% — see every threshold 5% — see every threshold 10% — see every threshold 50% — see every threshold

Default for currency pairs: 1%

Research estimate AI average · uncalibrated

AI average · uncalibrated Two research runs, by OpenAI and Claude. Each one searches news, central-bank and market data, cites what it used, then estimates. Weighted equally. ECB reference rate for 31 Dec 2026.

±1% from 0.8820 ±5% from 0.8820 ±10% from 0.8820 ±50% from 0.8820

Down 1% or more

41%

0.8732 or lower

Between −1% and +1%

26%

0.8732 to 0.8908

Up 1% or more

33%

0.8908 or higher

Down 1% or more

0.8732 or lower

41%

Between −1% and +1%

0.8732 to 0.8908

26%

Up 1% or more

0.8908 or higher

33%

The most likely of the three outcomes is down 1% or more, at 41%. Down 41% · Within 26% · Up 33% at ±1%.

Down 5% or more

0.8379 or lower

Between −5% and +5%

88%

0.8379 to 0.9261

Up 5% or more

0.9261 or higher

Down 5% or more

0.8379 or lower

Between −5% and +5%

0.8379 to 0.9261

88%

Up 5% or more

0.9261 or higher

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −5% and +5%, at 88%. Down 7% · Within 88% · Up 5% at ±5%.

Down 10% or more

0.4%

0.7938 or lower

Between −10% and +10%

99.2%

0.7938 to 0.9702

Up 10% or more

0.4%

0.9702 or higher

Down 10% or more

0.7938 or lower

0.4%

Between −10% and +10%

0.7938 to 0.9702

99.2%

Up 10% or more

0.9702 or higher

0.4%

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −10% and +10%, at 99.2%. Down 0.4% · Within 99.2% · Up 0.4% at ±10%.

Down 50% or more

<0.1%

0.4410 or lower

Between −50% and +50%

>99.9%

0.4410 to 1.3230

Up 50% or more

<0.1%

1.3230 or higher

Down 50% or more

0.4410 or lower

<0.1%

Between −50% and +50%

0.4410 to 1.3230

>99.9%

Up 50% or more

1.3230 or higher

<0.1%

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −50% and +50%, at >99.9%. Down <0.1% · Within >99.9% · Up <0.1% at ±50%.

How boundaries are counted

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8732 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8908 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.8732 and 0.8908. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8379 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.9261 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.8379 and 0.9261. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.7938 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.9702 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.7938 and 0.9702. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.4410 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 1.3230 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.4410 and 1.3230. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

The rate on the target date, not whether a level is touched before it. Probability estimates, not guarantees. Methodology and limitations.

EUR/GBP · 31 Dec · ±1% Down 41%, within 26%, up 33%

EUR/GBP · 31 Dec · ±5% Down 7%, within 88%, up 5%

EUR/GBP · 31 Dec · ±10% Down 0.4%, within 99.2%, up 0.4%

EUR/GBP · 31 Dec · ±50% Down <0.1%, within >99.9%, up <0.1%

Rate so far and forecast range

EUR/GBP since 31 Jul, then where the research estimate puts the rate on 31 Dec 2026.

Middle estimate: 0.8788; Even odds above or below
50% chance between: 0.8594 – 0.8973; 25th to 75th percentile
80% chance between: 0.8417 – 0.9188; 10th to 90th percentile

The forecast is only for 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC; the shading between 30 Oct and 31 Dec is interpolated for readability, not a forecast of the path. Percentiles come from the AI average, spread evenly within each threshold band. The models put 74% of the probability outside ±1%.

Chart data as a table

Forecast percentiles for 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC (AI average)
Percentile	Rate
10th	0.8417
25th	0.8594
Median (50th)	0.8788
75th	0.8973
90th	0.9188

EUR/GBP rate history, month-ends and the reference date
Date	Rate
31 Jul 2026	0.8425
31 Aug 2026	0.8324
30 Sep 2026	0.8520
30 Oct 2026	0.8820

Key reasons

The facts and articles both research runs leaned on most, and which way each points for the rate on 31 Dec. Higher means one euro buys more pounds.

2 point lower
1 to little change
2 point higher

Rate differential
Lower

If the Bank of England keeps rates higher for longer than the ECB, the pound tends to gain against the euro.

Model inference · source 1 1
[Article headline]
Higher

[Fact quoted from source 2 with its own date, for example a published inflation figure.]

Reported fact · [Publisher], [date] · source 2 2
Rate history baseline
Little change

Rate history alone puts 32% within ±1%, with 34% down and 34% up: no lean either way.

Statistical reference · synthetic fixture
Risk sentiment
Higher

A broad shift in global risk appetite could favour the euro against the pound before the target date.

Model inference · source 3 3
[Article headline]
Lower

[Fact quoted from source 4 with its own date.]

Reported fact · [Publisher], [date] · source 4 4

All reasons and sources How probabilities are calculated

In short

The most likely of the three outcomes is down 1% or more, at 41%. Down 41% · Within 26% · Up 33% at ±1%.

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −5% and +5%, at 88%. Down 7% · Within 88% · Up 5% at ±5%.

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −10% and +10%, at 99.2%. Down 0.4% · Within 99.2% · Up 0.4% at ±10%.

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −50% and +50%, at >99.9%. Down <0.1% · Within >99.9% · Up <0.1% at ±50%.

These estimates describe the rate at the target date, not whether a level is reached beforehand.

Why these estimates? How probabilities are calculated

All movement thresholds

AI average for the ECB reference rate for Thursday, 31 Dec 2026, from the 0.8820 reference. Rates are pounds per euro. All four thresholds are on this page; choosing one updates the panels above.

AI average probabilities for each movement threshold
ThresholdMove	Down	Within	Up	Selection
±1%	41% Down 1% or more: 0.8732 or lower	26% Between −1% and +1%: 0.8732 to 0.8908	33% Up 1% or more: 0.8908 or higher	Selected Show ±1%
±5%	7% Down 5% or more: 0.8379 or lower	88% Between −5% and +5%: 0.8379 to 0.9261	5% Up 5% or more: 0.9261 or higher	Selected Show ±5%
±10%	0.4% Down 10% or more: 0.7938 or lower	99.2% Between −10% and +10%: 0.7938 to 0.9702	0.4% Up 10% or more: 0.9702 or higher	Selected Show ±10%
±50%	<0.1% Down 50% or more: 0.4410 or lower	>99.9% Between −50% and +50%: 0.4410 to 1.3230	<0.1% Up 50% or more: 1.3230 or higher	Selected Show ±50%

Within ranges exclude both boundaries. Wider thresholds always have a larger Within share: the estimates nest consistently. A 50% move in a major currency pair is extremely unlikely; the estimate is shown rather than hidden so all four thresholds stay comparable. Values shown as “<0.1%” or “>99.9%” are bounds; the underlying values sum to 100%.

Compare sources

Selected threshold ±1%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8820 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 10 percentage points at ±1%.

Selected threshold ±5%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8820 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 3 percentage points at ±5%.

Selected threshold ±10%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8820 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 1 percentage point at ±10%.

Selected threshold ±50%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8820 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude give the same estimates at ±50%.

Down, within and up probabilities by source at the selected threshold
Source	Down	Within	Up	Updated	Coverage	Details
AI average Average · uncalibrated	41%	26%	33%	31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC	Fresh2 of 2 models	Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run	37%	25%	38%	31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC	Fresh4 cited sources	Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run	46%	26%	28%	31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC	Fresh4 cited sources	Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	34%	32%	34%	30 Oct 2026 fixing	FreshECB rate history	Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated	7%	88%	5%	31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC	Fresh2 of 2 models	Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run	6%	87%	7%	31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC	Fresh4 cited sources	Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run	7%	89%	4%	31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC	Fresh4 cited sources	Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	2%	96%	2%	30 Oct 2026 fixing	FreshECB rate history	Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated	0.4%	99.2%	0.4%	31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC	Fresh2 of 2 models	Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run	0.4%	99.0%	0.6%	31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC	Fresh4 cited sources	Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run	0.4%	99.4%	0.2%	31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC	Fresh4 cited sources	Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	<0.1%	>99.9%	<0.1%	30 Oct 2026 fixing	FreshECB rate history	Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated	<0.1%	>99.9%	<0.1%	31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC	Fresh2 of 2 models	Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run	<0.1%	>99.9%	<0.1%	31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC	Fresh4 cited sources	Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run	<0.1%	100.0%	0.0%	31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC	Fresh4 cited sources	Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	<0.1%	100.0%	0.0%	30 Oct 2026 fixing	FreshECB rate history	Details: Statistical reference — method

Prediction markets No matching market No contract on EUR/GBP settles near December 2026, and no related contract was found. Checked 31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC.

Source details

AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 2.5% volatility over the horizon (about 6% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated

Fresh

Down: 41%
Within: 26%
Up: 33%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run

Fresh

Down: 37%
Within: 25%
Up: 38%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run

Fresh

Down: 46%
Within: 26%
Up: 28%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture

Fresh

Down: 34%
Within: 32%
Up: 34%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 2.5% volatility over the horizon (about 6% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on EUR/GBP settles near December 2026, and no related contract was found.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated

Fresh

Down: 7%
Within: 88%
Up: 5%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run

Fresh

Down: 6%
Within: 87%
Up: 7%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run

Fresh

Down: 7%
Within: 89%
Up: 4%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture

Fresh

Down: 2%
Within: 96%
Up: 2%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 2.5% volatility over the horizon (about 6% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on EUR/GBP settles near December 2026, and no related contract was found.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated

Fresh

Down: 0.4%
Within: 99.2%
Up: 0.4%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run

Fresh

Down: 0.4%
Within: 99.0%
Up: 0.6%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run

Fresh

Down: 0.4%
Within: 99.4%
Up: 0.2%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture

Fresh

Down: <0.1%
Within: >99.9%
Up: <0.1%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 2.5% volatility over the horizon (about 6% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on EUR/GBP settles near December 2026, and no related contract was found.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated

Fresh

Down: <0.1%
Within: >99.9%
Up: <0.1%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run

Fresh

Down: <0.1%
Within: >99.9%
Up: <0.1%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run

Fresh

Down: <0.1%
Within: 100.0%
Up: 0.0%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture

Fresh

Down: <0.1%
Within: 100.0%
Up: 0.0%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 2.5% volatility over the horizon (about 6% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on EUR/GBP settles near December 2026, and no related contract was found.

Distribution of possible moves

AI average, built from the threshold probabilities and spread evenly within each band. Heights show probability per percentage point.

Down band Within band Up band Selected threshold Reference, 0%

Histogram of the bands listed in the table beside: probability per percentage point for each band between −10% and +10%.

Probability density, % per percentage point

−12%
0.7762 −8%
0.8114 −4%
0.8467 0%
0.8820 +4%
0.9173 +8%
0.9526 +12%
0.9878

−10%
0.7938 0%
0.8820 +10%
0.9702

Change in EUR/GBP at the target observation, with the matching rate

Hover a band for its price range and probability. Not drawn: 0.4% of outcomes below −10% (0.7938) and 0.4% above +10% (0.9702). The ±50% boundaries (0.4410 and 1.3230) are far outside this axis.

The same distribution as a table
Change	Rate	Prob.	Per point
Below −10%	Below 0.7938	0.4%	—
−10% to −5%	0.7938–0.8379	6%	1.29
−5% to −1%	0.8379–0.8732	35%	8.69
−1% to +1%	0.8732–0.8908	26%	12.84
+1% to +5%	0.8908–0.9261	27%	6.86
+5% to +10%	0.9261–0.9702	5%	0.98
Above +10%	Above 0.9702	0.4%	—
Total		100%

Why these estimates?

Directional factors follow the quote (pounds per euro): “higher” means EUR/GBP rises. Each item says whether it is a reported fact or the model’s inference.

What could push EUR/GBP higher?

[Reported fact] Reported fact

[Fact quoted from source 2 with its own date, for example a published inflation figure.] 2
Risk sentiment Model inference

A broad shift in global risk appetite could favour the euro against the pound before the target date. 3

What could push it lower?

Rate differential Model inference

If the Bank of England keeps rates higher for longer than the ECB, the pound tends to gain against the euro. 1
[Reported fact] Reported fact

[Fact quoted from source 4 with its own date.] 4

Events before the target date

Scheduled dates come from official calendars. Scenarios are hypothetical and have no date.

Confirmed dates

9 Dec 2026

US Federal Reserve policy decision

FOMC meeting 8–9 Dec; statement at 2:00 p.m. ET. Federal Reserve calendar
Confirmed date
17 Dec 2026

ECB monetary policy meeting

Decision followed by a press conference. ECB meeting calendar
Confirmed date
31 Dec 2026

Target observation

ECB reference rate for Thursday, 31 Dec settles this forecast.
Forecast target
26–27 Jan 2027

US Federal Reserve meeting

After the target date, so it cannot affect this outcome.
After target

Hypothetical scenarios

A sudden global risk-off move that shifts demand toward safe-haven currencies.
Scenario · no date

Prediction-market context

No matching market Related market: none Checked 31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC

No contract on EUR/GBP settles near December 2026, and no related contract was found. Market evidence is left out rather than shown as 0%.

Options-implied (risk-neutral) estimates are a different kind of evidence and are not shown in this version. How sources are matched

What this forecast may miss

Moves between fixings. The ECB rate is one daily observation; market rates at other times can differ.
Weekend news. Anything after 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC enters only with a new version.
Calibration. Very few EUR/GBP forecasts have settled; the AI average is uncalibrated.

Forecast versions

Each version keeps its own reference rate and source timestamps. Earlier versions are stored, never overwritten. Shown at ±1%; every version holds all four thresholds.

Stored versions of this forecast
Published	Reference rate	Down / Within / Up at ±1%	Version
31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC	0.8820 · 30 Oct fixing	41% / 26% / 33%	Current version · viewing

Research estimate AI average · uncalibrated

Down 1% or more

Between −1% and +1%

Up 1% or more

Down 5% or more

Between −5% and +5%

Up 5% or more

Down 10% or more

Between −10% and +10%

Up 10% or more

Down 50% or more

Between −50% and +50%

Up 50% or more

Rate so far and forecast range

All movement thresholds

Compare sources

AI average

OpenAI

Claude

Statistical reference

Prediction markets

AI average

OpenAI

Claude

Statistical reference

Prediction markets

AI average

OpenAI

Claude

Statistical reference

Prediction markets

AI average

OpenAI

Claude

Statistical reference

Prediction markets

Distribution of possible moves

Why these estimates?

What could push EUR/GBP higher?

What could push it lower?

Events before the target date

Confirmed dates

Hypothetical scenarios

Prediction-market context

What this forecast may miss

Forecast versions

Track record

Other EUR/GBP dates

Sources

Method