Demo data

Year-end 2026 outlook

Solana forecast for 31 Dec 2026

Fresh

Link to this forecast: https://futurenotset.com/crypto/sol-usd/forecast/2026-12-31/. This address always means 31 Dec 2026.

Reference price
$180.00 US dollars per SOL · frozen for this versionUSD per SOL · frozen
Dates and timesHide dates and times
Reference observed
31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Forecast published
31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC
Target
31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC · price at this time
Movement threshold
1% — see every threshold 5% — see every threshold 10% — see every threshold 50% — see every threshold

Research estimate AI average · uncalibrated

AI average · uncalibrated Two research runs, by OpenAI and Claude. Each one searches news, market data and official calendars, cites what it used, then estimates. Weighted equally. Price at 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC.

±1% from $180.00 ±5% from $180.00 ±10% from $180.00 ±50% from $180.00

Down 1% or more

54%

$178.20 or lower

Between −1% and +1%

2%

$178.20 to $181.80

Up 1% or more

44%

$181.80 or higher

Down 1% or more

$178.20 or lower

54%

Between −1% and +1%

$178.20 to $181.80

2%

Up 1% or more

$181.80 or higher

44%

The most likely of the three outcomes is down 1% or more, at 54%. Down 54% · Within 2% · Up 44% at ±1%.

Down 5% or more

50%

$171.00 or lower

Between −5% and +5%

9%

$171.00 to $189.00

Up 5% or more

41%

$189.00 or higher

Down 5% or more

$171.00 or lower

50%

Between −5% and +5%

$171.00 to $189.00

9%

Up 5% or more

$189.00 or higher

41%

The most likely of the three outcomes is down 5% or more, at 50%. Down 50% · Within 9% · Up 41% at ±5%.

Down 10% or more

45%

$162.00 or lower

Between −10% and +10%

18%

$162.00 to $198.00

Up 10% or more

37%

$198.00 or higher

Down 10% or more

$162.00 or lower

45%

Between −10% and +10%

$162.00 to $198.00

18%

Up 10% or more

$198.00 or higher

37%

The most likely of the three outcomes is down 10% or more, at 45%. Down 45% · Within 18% · Up 37% at ±10%.

Down 50% or more

8%

$90.00 or lower

Between −50% and +50%

77%

$90.00 to $270.00

Up 50% or more

15%

$270.00 or higher

Down 50% or more

$90.00 or lower

8%

Between −50% and +50%

$90.00 to $270.00

77%

Up 50% or more

$270.00 or higher

15%

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −50% and +50%, at 77%. Down 8% · Within 77% · Up 15% at ±50%.

How boundaries are counted

Down includes its boundary: a price of exactly $178.20 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a price of exactly $181.80 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between $178.20 and $181.80. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a price of exactly $171.00 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a price of exactly $189.00 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between $171.00 and $189.00. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a price of exactly $162.00 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a price of exactly $198.00 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between $162.00 and $198.00. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a price of exactly $90.00 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a price of exactly $270.00 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between $90.00 and $270.00. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

The price on the target date, not whether a level is touched before it. Probability estimates, not guarantees. Methodology and limitations.

SOL/USD · 31 Dec · ±1% Down 54%, within 2%, up 44%
SOL/USD · 31 Dec · ±5% Down 50%, within 9%, up 41%
SOL/USD · 31 Dec · ±10% Down 45%, within 18%, up 37%
SOL/USD · 31 Dec · ±50% Down 8%, within 77%, up 15%

Price so far and forecast range

SOL/USD since 31 Jul, then where the research estimate puts the price on 31 Dec 2026.

Middle estimate
$171.11
Even odds above or below
50% chance between
$127.98 – $228.78
25th to 75th percentile
80% chance between
$95.16 – $303.80
10th to 90th percentile
$400$300$200$100$0 31 Jul31 Aug30 Sep31 Oct30 Nov31 Dec PRICE HISTORYFORECAST RANGETARGET +1% · $181.80 −1% · $178.20 +5% · $189.00 −5% · $171.00 +10% · $198.00 −10% · $162.00 +50% · $270.00 −50% · $90.00 90th · $303.80 75th · $228.78 Median · $171.11 25th · $127.98 10th · $95.16 $180.00 $400$300$200$100$0 31 Jul31 Aug30 Sep31 Oct30 Nov31 Dec +1% · $181.80 −1% · $178.20 +5% · $189.00 −5% · $171.00 +10% · $198.00 −10% · $162.00 +50% · $270.00 −50% · $90.00 $180.00
The forecast is only for 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC; the shading between 31 Oct and 31 Dec is interpolated for readability, not a forecast of the path. Percentiles come from the AI average, spread evenly within each threshold band. The models put 82% of the probability outside ±10%.
Chart data as a table
Forecast percentiles for 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC (AI average)
PercentilePrice
10th$95.16
25th$127.98
Median (50th)$171.11
75th$228.78
90th$303.80
SOL/USD price history, month-ends and the reference date
DatePrice
31 Jul 2026$165.00
31 Aug 2026$172.40
30 Sep 2026$140.30
31 Oct 2026$180.00

All movement thresholds

AI average for the price on 31 Dec 2026, measured from the $180.00 reference. All four thresholds are on this page; choosing one updates the panels above.

AI average probabilities for each movement threshold
ThresholdMove Down Within Up Selection
±1% 54% Down 1% or more: $178.20 or lower 2% Between −1% and +1%: $178.20 to $181.80 44% Up 1% or more: $181.80 or higher Selected Show ±1%
±5% 50% Down 5% or more: $171.00 or lower 9% Between −5% and +5%: $171.00 to $189.00 41% Up 5% or more: $189.00 or higher Selected Show ±5%
±10% 45% Down 10% or more: $162.00 or lower 18% Between −10% and +10%: $162.00 to $198.00 37% Up 10% or more: $198.00 or higher Selected Show ±10%
±50% 8% Down 50% or more: $90.00 or lower 77% Between −50% and +50%: $90.00 to $270.00 15% Up 50% or more: $270.00 or higher Selected Show ±50%

Within ranges exclude both boundaries. Wider thresholds always have a larger Within share: the estimates nest consistently.

Compare sources

Selected threshold ±1%. Every source uses the same event and the same $180.00 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude give the same estimates at ±1%.

Selected threshold ±5%. Every source uses the same event and the same $180.00 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 1 percentage point at ±5%.

Selected threshold ±10%. Every source uses the same event and the same $180.00 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 1 percentage point at ±10%.

Selected threshold ±50%. Every source uses the same event and the same $180.00 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 3 percentage points at ±50%.

Down, within and up probabilities by source at the selected threshold
Source Down Within Up Updated Coverage Details
AI average Average · uncalibrated 54%2%44% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 54%2%44% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 54%2%44% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 49%2%49% 31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC FreshPrice history only Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated 50%9%41% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 50%9%41% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 49%10%41% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 44%11%45% 31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC FreshPrice history only Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated 45%18%37% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 45%18%37% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 44%19%37% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 38%23%39% 31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC FreshPrice history only Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated 8%77%15% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 9%76%15% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 7%79%14% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh5 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 3%85%12% 31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC FreshPrice history only Details: Statistical reference — method
Prediction markets No matching market Listed contracts ask whether solana touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC. No related contract settles near this date. Checked 31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC.
Source details
AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal price at the target with zero median change and 34.7% volatility over the horizon (about 85% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
54%
Within
2%
Up
44%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
54%
Within
2%
Up
44%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
54%
Within
2%
Up
44%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
49%
Within
2%
Up
49%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · Price history only

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal price at the target with zero median change and 34.7% volatility over the horizon (about 85% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

Listed contracts ask whether solana touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC. No related contract settles near this date.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
50%
Within
9%
Up
41%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
50%
Within
9%
Up
41%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
49%
Within
10%
Up
41%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
44%
Within
11%
Up
45%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · Price history only

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal price at the target with zero median change and 34.7% volatility over the horizon (about 85% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

Listed contracts ask whether solana touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC. No related contract settles near this date.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
45%
Within
18%
Up
37%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
45%
Within
18%
Up
37%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
44%
Within
19%
Up
37%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
38%
Within
23%
Up
39%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · Price history only

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal price at the target with zero median change and 34.7% volatility over the horizon (about 85% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

Listed contracts ask whether solana touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC. No related contract settles near this date.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
8%
Within
77%
Up
15%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
9%
Within
76%
Up
15%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
7%
Within
79%
Up
14%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 5 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
3%
Within
85%
Up
12%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC · Price history only

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal price at the target with zero median change and 34.7% volatility over the horizon (about 85% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

Listed contracts ask whether solana touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC. No related contract settles near this date.

Distribution of possible returns

AI average, built only from the threshold probabilities. Each band’s probability is spread evenly across its width, so the steps come from the thresholds, not from a modelled price path. Heights show probability per percentage point because bands differ in width.AI average, spread evenly within each threshold band. Heights are probability per percentage point.

Down band Within band Up band Selected threshold Reference, 0%

Histogram of the bands listed in the table below: probability per percentage point for each band between −50% and +50%.

Hover a band for its price range and probability. Not drawn: 8% below −50% ($90.00) and 15% above +50% ($270.00).

Show as a tableHide table
The distribution as a table
Return at target Price Prob. Per point
Below −50% Below $90.00 8% —
−50% to −10% $90.00–$162.00 37% 0.93
−10% to −5% $162.00–$171.00 5% 1.01
−5% to −1% $171.00–$178.20 4% 0.97
−1% to +1% $178.20–$181.80 2% 0.93
+1% to +5% $181.80–$189.00 4% 0.90
+5% to +10% $189.00–$198.00 4% 0.84
+10% to +50% $198.00–$270.00 22% 0.55
Above +50% Above $270.00 15% —
Total 100%

Why these estimates?

Factors the models cited for this target date. Each item says whether it is a reported fact or the model’s inference.

What could push the price higher?

  1. Spot ETF demand Model inference

    Continued net inflows into US spot solana ETFs would add steady buying before the target date. 1

  2. [Reported fact] Reported fact

    [Fact quoted from source 2 with its own date, for example a published fund-flow figure.] 2

What could push it lower?

  1. Tighter financial conditions Model inference

    If US yields rise into the 9 Dec Federal Reserve decision, the models expect pressure on solana alongside other risk assets. 3 7

  2. Regulatory setback Model inference

    An adverse US decision affecting crypto exchanges or ETFs before the target date would likely weigh on the price. 4

  3. [Reported fact] Reported fact

    [Fact quoted from source 5 with its own date.] 5

Events before the target date

Scheduled dates come from official calendars. Scenarios are hypothetical and have no date.

Confirmed dates

  1. 9 Dec 2026

    US Federal Reserve policy decision

    FOMC meeting 8–9 Dec; statement at 2:00 p.m. ET. Federal Reserve calendar

    Confirmed date

  2. 17 Dec 2026

    ECB monetary policy meeting

    Decision followed by a press conference. ECB meeting calendar

    Confirmed date

  3. 31 Dec 202623:59 UTC

    Target observation

    The SOL/USD price at this time settles this forecast.

    Forecast target

  4. 26–27 Jan 2027

    US Federal Reserve meeting

    After the target date, so it cannot affect this outcome.

    After target

Hypothetical scenarios

  • A sharp risk-off move in global equities before the target date.

    Scenario · no date

  • An adverse US regulatory decision affecting crypto exchanges or ETFs.

    Scenario · no date

Prediction-market context

No matching market Related market: none Checked 31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC

Listed contracts ask whether solana touches a price before a deadline, not the price on 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC. No related contract settles near this date. Market evidence is left out rather than shown as 0%.

Options-implied (risk-neutral) estimates are a different kind of evidence and are not shown in this version. How sources are matched

What this forecast may miss

  • The path before the target. A move above $0.00 before the target date followed by a fall would not change the outcome.
  • News after 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC. It enters only when a new version is published.
  • Differences between venues. Individual exchanges can trade away from the reference price source.
  • Calibration. The AI average has not been adjusted using settled outcomes, and this pair has very little live history.
  • Market-implied views. The statistical reference is a simple baseline, not an options-implied (risk-neutral) estimate.

Forecast versions

Each version keeps its own reference price and source timestamps. Earlier versions are stored, never overwritten. Shown at ±10%; every version holds all four thresholds.

Stored versions of this forecast
Published Reference price Down / Within / Up at ±10% Version
31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC $180.00 45% / 18% / 37% Current version · viewing