Solana · SOL/USD

Forecast outcome — 30 Sep 2026

Settled

Forecast issued on 31 Jul 2026, 06:12 UTC

61 days before the target. This is the scored version, chosen by the documented evaluation rule. The original estimates below are unchanged.

Result

Original reference: $165.00; Observed 31 Jul 2026, 06:00 UTC
Target observation: $140.30; 30 Sep 2026, 23:59 UTC · [Crypto price provider] aggregated reference observation
Realized return: −14.97%; Price at the target versus the reference
Outcome at ±1%: Down 1% or more; $163.35 or lower
Outcome at ±5%: Down 5% or more; $156.75 or lower
Outcome at ±10%: Down 10% or more; $148.50 or lower
Outcome at ±50%: Between −50% and +50%; $82.50 to $247.50

Movement threshold

1% 5% 10% 50%

1% — see every threshold 5% — see every threshold 10% — see every threshold 50% — see every threshold

One outcome is scored at each threshold. The page keeps all four.

Original forecast · AI average — uncalibrated

As published on 31 Jul 2026. Nothing here has been rewritten after the outcome.

Down 1% or more

49%

$163.35 or lower

Happened

Between −1% and +1%

$163.35 to $166.65

Did not happen

Up 1% or more

49%

$166.65 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 49% on the outcome that happened.

Down 5% or more

45%

$156.75 or lower

Happened

Between −5% and +5%

$156.75 to $173.25

Did not happen

Up 5% or more

46%

$173.25 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 45% on the outcome that happened.

Down 10% or more

40%

$148.50 or lower

Happened

Between −10% and +10%

18%

$148.50 to $181.50

Did not happen

Up 10% or more

42%

$181.50 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 40% on the outcome that happened.

Down 50% or more

$82.50 or lower

Did not happen

Between −50% and +50%

76%

$82.50 to $247.50

Happened

Up 50% or more

18%

$247.50 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 76% on the outcome that happened.

Score for this result

Brier score at ±1%: 0.504

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.49 − 1)² + (0.02 − 0)² + (0.49 − 0)² = 0.504

Brier score at ±5%: 0.519

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.45 − 1)² + (0.09 − 0)² + (0.46 − 0)² = 0.519

Brier score at ±10%: 0.563

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.40 − 1)² + (0.18 − 0)² + (0.41 − 0)² = 0.563

Brier score at ±50%: 0.096

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.06 − 0)² + (0.76 − 1)² + (0.18 − 0)² = 0.096

Each term is (forecast − actual)², where actual is 1 for the outcome that happened and 0 for the others. One result says little about skill. See the track record.

Outcome at every threshold

The realized return of −14.97% falls into a different category depending on the threshold.

Realized outcome and score for each threshold
Threshold	Outcome	Original Down / Within / Up	On outcome	Brier (0–2)
±1%	Down 1% or more $163.35 or lower	49% / 2% / 49%	49%	0.504
±5%	Down 5% or more $156.75 or lower	45% / 9% / 46%	45%	0.519
±10%	Down 10% or more $148.50 or lower	40% / 18% / 42%	40%	0.563
±50%	Between −50% and +50% $82.50 to $247.50	6% / 76% / 18%	76%	0.096

Scores by source

At ±1%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±1%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	49% / 2% / 49%	0.504
OpenAI	42% / 2% / 56%	0.652
Claude	56% / 2% / 42%	0.376
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	49% / 2% / 49%	0.501
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±5%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±5%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	45% / 9% / 46%	0.519
OpenAI	38% / 9% / 53%	0.664
Claude	52% / 9% / 39%	0.392
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	44% / 11% / 45%	0.522
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±10%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±10%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	40% / 18% / 42%	0.563
OpenAI	34% / 18% / 48%	0.703
Claude	47% / 19% / 34%	0.441
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	38% / 23% / 39%	0.588
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±50%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±50%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	6% / 76% / 18%	0.096
OpenAI	5% / 72% / 23%	0.137
Claude	7% / 80% / 13%	0.064
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	3% / 85% / 12%	0.037
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

Which version is scored

One version was published for this date. The evaluation rule picks the scored version per target in advance, so the score never depends on which version happened to look best. Evaluation rules

Published versions for this target date
Issued	Lead time	Reference	±10% Down / Within / Up	Evaluation
31 Jul 2026, 06:12 UTC	61 days	$165.00	40% / 18% / 42%	Scored version

Each stored version keeps its own reference price and timestamps.

Later SOL/USD forecasts

This page stays at this address. Later dates have their own pages; you are not redirected.

31 Oct 2026 forecast 30 Nov 2026 forecast 31 Dec 2026 forecast

Before settlement

Between the target time and the arrival of the settlement price, this page shows a pending state instead of a result.

History

SOL/USD forecast history Forecast track record