Solana · SOL/USD

Forecast outcome — 31 Aug 2026

Settled

Forecast issued on 31 Jul 2026, 06:12 UTC

31 days before the target. This is the scored version, chosen by the documented evaluation rule. The original estimates below are unchanged.

Result

Original reference: $165.00; Observed 31 Jul 2026, 06:00 UTC
Target observation: $172.40; 31 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC · [Crypto price provider] aggregated reference observation
Realized return: +4.48%; Price at the target versus the reference
Outcome at ±1%: Up 1% or more; $166.65 or higher
Outcome at ±5%: Between −5% and +5%; $156.75 to $173.25
Outcome at ±10%: Between −10% and +10%; $148.50 to $181.50
Outcome at ±50%: Between −50% and +50%; $82.50 to $247.50

Movement threshold

1% 5% 10% 50%

1% — see every threshold 5% — see every threshold 10% — see every threshold 50% — see every threshold

One outcome is scored at each threshold. The page keeps all four.

Original forecast · AI average — uncalibrated

As published on 31 Jul 2026. Nothing here has been rewritten after the outcome.

Down 1% or more

47%

$163.35 or lower

Did not happen

Between −1% and +1%

$163.35 to $166.65

Did not happen

Up 1% or more

50%

$166.65 or higher

Happened

The forecast put 50% on the outcome that happened.

Down 5% or more

42%

$156.75 or lower

Did not happen

Between −5% and +5%

13%

$156.75 to $173.25

Happened

Up 5% or more

45%

$173.25 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 13% on the outcome that happened.

Down 10% or more

35%

$148.50 or lower

Did not happen

Between −10% and +10%

26%

$148.50 to $181.50

Happened

Up 10% or more

39%

$181.50 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 26% on the outcome that happened.

Down 50% or more

$82.50 or lower

Did not happen

Between −50% and +50%

87%

$82.50 to $247.50

Happened

Up 50% or more

11%

$247.50 or higher

Did not happen

The forecast put 87% on the outcome that happened.

Score for this result

Brier score at ±1%: 0.465

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.47 − 0)² + (0.03 − 0)² + (0.51 − 1)² = 0.465

Brier score at ±5%: 1.138

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.42 − 0)² + (0.13 − 1)² + (0.45 − 0)² = 1.138

Brier score at ±10%: 0.832

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.35 − 0)² + (0.26 − 1)² + (0.40 − 0)² = 0.832

Brier score at ±50%: 0.030

Brier score, three outcomes. Lower scores mean better probability estimates; 0 is perfect for an individual result and 2 is the worst.

Down, Within, Up: (0.02 − 0)² + (0.87 − 1)² + (0.11 − 0)² = 0.030

Each term is (forecast − actual)², where actual is 1 for the outcome that happened and 0 for the others. One result says little about skill. See the track record.

Outcome at every threshold

The realized return of +4.48% falls into a different category depending on the threshold.

Realized outcome and score for each threshold
Threshold	Outcome	Original Down / Within / Up	On outcome	Brier (0–2)
±1%	Up 1% or more $166.65 or higher	47% / 3% / 50%	50%	0.465
±5%	Between −5% and +5% $156.75 to $173.25	42% / 13% / 45%	13%	1.138
±10%	Between −10% and +10% $148.50 to $181.50	35% / 26% / 39%	26%	0.832
±50%	Between −50% and +50% $82.50 to $247.50	2% / 87% / 11%	87%	0.030

Scores by source

At ±1%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±1%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	47% / 3% / 50%	0.465
OpenAI	42% / 3% / 55%	0.381
Claude	51% / 3% / 46%	0.558
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	48% / 3% / 49%	0.501
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±5%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±5%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	42% / 13% / 45%	1.138
OpenAI	37% / 13% / 50%	1.159
Claude	46% / 13% / 41%	1.124
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	42% / 16% / 42%	1.063
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±10%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±10%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	35% / 26% / 39%	0.832
OpenAI	31% / 25% / 44%	0.865
Claude	39% / 26% / 35%	0.808
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	34% / 31% / 35%	0.712
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

At ±50%, same scored version and the same outcome. Differences on a single result are not evidence that one source is better.

Brier score by source at ±50%
Source	Original Down / Within / Up	Brier (0–2)
AI average	2% / 87% / 11%	0.030
OpenAI	2% / 84% / 14%	0.044
Claude	2% / 90% / 8%	0.018
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture	0.3% / 94.4% / 5.3%	0.006
Prediction markets	No matching market	Not scored

Which version is scored

One version was published for this date. The evaluation rule picks the scored version per target in advance, so the score never depends on which version happened to look best. Evaluation rules

Published versions for this target date
Issued	Lead time	Reference	±10% Down / Within / Up	Evaluation
31 Jul 2026, 06:12 UTC	31 days	$165.00	35% / 26% / 39%	Scored version

Each stored version keeps its own reference price and timestamps.

Later SOL/USD forecasts

This page stays at this address. Later dates have their own pages; you are not redirected.

31 Oct 2026 forecast 30 Nov 2026 forecast 31 Dec 2026 forecast

Before settlement

Between the target time and the arrival of the settlement price, this page shows a pending state instead of a result.

History

SOL/USD forecast history Forecast track record