Demo data

6-month outlook (month-end)

USD/CHF forecast for 30 Apr 2027

Fresh

Link to this forecast: https://futurenotset.com/forex/usd-chf/forecast/2027-04-30/. This address always means 30 Apr 2027.

Reference rate
0.8000 Swiss francs per US dollar · ECB daily reference rate · frozenCHF per US dollar · frozen
Dates and timesHide dates and times
Rate observed
Friday, 30 Oct 2026 · ECB fixing, about 16:00 CET
Forecast published
31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · rate 15 h old
Target
30 Apr 2027 · settles on the ECB rate for Friday, 30 Apr

Reference rate from 30 Oct. The ECB publishes no reference rates at weekends or on TARGET holidays. The outcome uses the ECB fixing of Friday, 30 Apr 2027.

Settles on Friday, 30 Apr 2027

Movement threshold
1% — see every threshold 5% — see every threshold 10% — see every threshold 50% — see every threshold

Default for currency pairs: 1%

Research estimate AI average · uncalibrated

AI average · uncalibrated Two research runs, by OpenAI and Claude. Each one searches news, central-bank and market data, cites what it used, then estimates. Weighted equally. ECB reference rate for 30 Apr 2027.

±1% from 0.8000 ±5% from 0.8000 ±10% from 0.8000 ±50% from 0.8000

Down 1% or more

49%

0.7920 or lower

Between −1% and +1%

11%

0.7920 to 0.8080

Up 1% or more

40%

0.8080 or higher

Down 1% or more

0.7920 or lower

49%

Between −1% and +1%

0.7920 to 0.8080

11%

Up 1% or more

0.8080 or higher

40%

The most likely of the three outcomes is down 1% or more, at 49%. Down 49% · Within 11% · Up 40% at ±1%.

Down 5% or more

26%

0.7600 or lower

Between −5% and +5%

53%

0.7600 to 0.8400

Up 5% or more

21%

0.8400 or higher

Down 5% or more

0.7600 or lower

26%

Between −5% and +5%

0.7600 to 0.8400

53%

Up 5% or more

0.8400 or higher

21%

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −5% and +5%, at 53%. Down 26% · Within 53% · Up 21% at ±5%.

Down 10% or more

9%

0.7200 or lower

Between −10% and +10%

83%

0.7200 to 0.8800

Up 10% or more

8%

0.8800 or higher

Down 10% or more

0.7200 or lower

9%

Between −10% and +10%

0.7200 to 0.8800

83%

Up 10% or more

0.8800 or higher

8%

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −10% and +10%, at 83%. Down 9% · Within 83% · Up 8% at ±10%.

Down 50% or more

<0.1%

0.4000 or lower

Between −50% and +50%

>99.9%

0.4000 to 1.2000

Up 50% or more

<0.1%

1.2000 or higher

Down 50% or more

0.4000 or lower

<0.1%

Between −50% and +50%

0.4000 to 1.2000

>99.9%

Up 50% or more

1.2000 or higher

<0.1%

The most likely of the three outcomes is between −50% and +50%, at >99.9%. Down <0.1% · Within >99.9% · Up <0.1% at ±50%.

How boundaries are counted

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.7920 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8080 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.7920 and 0.8080. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.7600 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8400 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.7600 and 0.8400. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.7200 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8800 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.7200 and 0.8800. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.4000 counts as Down.

Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 1.2000 counts as Up.

Within is strictly between 0.4000 and 1.2000. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.

The rate on the target date, not whether a level is touched before it. Probability estimates, not guarantees. Methodology and limitations.

USD/CHF · 30 Apr · ±1% Down 49%, within 11%, up 40%
USD/CHF · 30 Apr · ±5% Down 26%, within 53%, up 21%
USD/CHF · 30 Apr · ±10% Down 9%, within 83%, up 8%
USD/CHF · 30 Apr · ±50% Down <0.1%, within >99.9%, up <0.1%

Rate so far and forecast range

USD/CHF since 31 Jul, then where the research estimate puts the rate on 30 Apr 2027.

Middle estimate
0.7939
Even odds above or below
50% chance between
0.7568 – 0.8326
25th to 75th percentile
80% chance between
0.7227 – 0.8728
10th to 90th percentile
0.900.850.800.750.70 31 Jul31 Aug30 Sep31 Oct30 Nov31 Dec31 Jan28 Feb31 Mar30 Apr RATE HISTORYFORECAST RANGETARGET +1% · 0.8080 −1% · 0.7920 +5% · 0.8400 −5% · 0.7600 +10% · 0.8800 −10% · 0.7200 +50% · 1.2000 ↑ −50% · 0.4000 ↓ 90th · 0.8728 75th · 0.8326 Median · 0.7939 25th · 0.7568 10th · 0.7227 0.8000 0.900.850.800.750.70 31 Jul30 Sep30 Nov31 Jan30 Apr +1% · 0.8080 −1% · 0.7920 +5% · 0.8400 −5% · 0.7600 +10% · 0.8800 −10% · 0.7200 +50% · 1.2000 ↑ −50% · 0.4000 ↓ 0.8000
The forecast is only for 30 Apr 2027, 23:59 UTC; the shading between 30 Oct and 30 Apr is interpolated for readability, not a forecast of the path. Percentiles come from the AI average, spread evenly within each threshold band. The models put 89% of the probability outside ±1%.
Chart data as a table
Forecast percentiles for 30 Apr 2027, 23:59 UTC (AI average)
PercentileRate
10th0.7227
25th0.7568
Median (50th)0.7939
75th0.8326
90th0.8728
USD/CHF rate history, month-ends and the reference date
DateRate
31 Jul 20260.8100
31 Aug 20260.8090
30 Sep 20260.7850
30 Oct 20260.8000

All movement thresholds

AI average for the ECB reference rate for Friday, 30 Apr 2027, from the 0.8000 reference. Rates are Swiss francs per US dollar. All four thresholds are on this page; choosing one updates the panels above.

AI average probabilities for each movement threshold
ThresholdMove Down Within Up Selection
±1% 49% Down 1% or more: 0.7920 or lower 11% Between −1% and +1%: 0.7920 to 0.8080 40% Up 1% or more: 0.8080 or higher Selected Show ±1%
±5% 26% Down 5% or more: 0.7600 or lower 53% Between −5% and +5%: 0.7600 to 0.8400 21% Up 5% or more: 0.8400 or higher Selected Show ±5%
±10% 9% Down 10% or more: 0.7200 or lower 83% Between −10% and +10%: 0.7200 to 0.8800 8% Up 10% or more: 0.8800 or higher Selected Show ±10%
±50% <0.1% Down 50% or more: 0.4000 or lower >99.9% Between −50% and +50%: 0.4000 to 1.2000 <0.1% Up 50% or more: 1.2000 or higher Selected Show ±50%

Within ranges exclude both boundaries. Wider thresholds always have a larger Within share: the estimates nest consistently. A 50% move in a major currency pair is extremely unlikely; the estimate is shown rather than hidden so all four thresholds stay comparable. Values shown as “<0.1%” or “>99.9%” are bounds; the underlying values sum to 100%.

Compare sources

Selected threshold ±1%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8000 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 1 percentage point at ±1%.

Selected threshold ±5%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8000 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 3 percentage points at ±5%.

Selected threshold ±10%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8000 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 3 percentage points at ±10%.

Selected threshold ±50%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8000 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude give the same estimates at ±50%.

Down, within and up probabilities by source at the selected threshold
Source Down Within Up Updated Coverage Details
AI average Average · uncalibrated 49%11%40% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 49%11%40% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 49%12%39% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 43%14%43% 30 Oct 2026 fixing FreshECB rate history Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated 26%53%21% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 27%51%22% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 26%54%20% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 18%63%19% 30 Oct 2026 fixing FreshECB rate history Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated 9%83%8% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run 9%82%9% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run 8%85%7% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture 3%92%5% 30 Oct 2026 fixing FreshECB rate history Details: Statistical reference — method
AI average Average · uncalibrated <0.1%>99.9%<0.1% 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC Fresh2 of 2 models Details: AI average — method
OpenAI Research run <0.1%>99.9%<0.1% 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: OpenAI — run details
Claude Research run <0.1%>99.9%<0.1% 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC Fresh4 cited sources Details: Claude — run details
Statistical reference Synthetic fixture <0.1%>99.9%<0.1% 30 Oct 2026 fixing FreshECB rate history Details: Statistical reference — method
Prediction markets No matching market No contract on USD/CHF settles near April 2027, and no related contract was found. Checked 31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC.
Source details
AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 5.6% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
49%
Within
11%
Up
40%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
49%
Within
11%
Up
40%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
49%
Within
12%
Up
39%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
43%
Within
14%
Up
43%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 5.6% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on USD/CHF settles near April 2027, and no related contract was found.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
26%
Within
53%
Up
21%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
27%
Within
51%
Up
22%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
26%
Within
54%
Up
20%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
18%
Within
63%
Up
19%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 5.6% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on USD/CHF settles near April 2027, and no related contract was found.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
9%
Within
83%
Up
8%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
9%
Within
82%
Up
9%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
8%
Within
85%
Up
7%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
3%
Within
92%
Up
5%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 5.6% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on USD/CHF settles near April 2027, and no related contract was found.

AI average

Average · uncalibrated
Fresh
Down
<0.1%
Within
>99.9%
Up
<0.1%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models

Details: AI average — method

Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.

Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.

OpenAI

Research run
Fresh
Down
<0.1%
Within
>99.9%
Up
<0.1%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: OpenAI — run details

Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Claude

Research run
Fresh
Down
<0.1%
Within
>99.9%
Up
<0.1%

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources

Details: Claude — run details

Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]

Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.

Statistical reference

Synthetic fixture
Fresh
Down
<0.1%
Within
>99.9%
Up
<0.1%

Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history

Details: Statistical reference — method

Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 5.6% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).

A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.

Prediction markets

No matching market

No contract on USD/CHF settles near April 2027, and no related contract was found.

Distribution of possible moves

AI average, built from the threshold probabilities and spread evenly within each band. Heights show probability per percentage point.

Down band Within band Up band Selected threshold Reference, 0%

Histogram of the bands listed in the table beside: probability per percentage point for each band between −10% and +10%.

Hover a band for its price range and probability. Not drawn: 9% of outcomes below −10% (0.7200) and 8% above +10% (0.8800). The ±50% boundaries (0.4000 and 1.2000) are far outside this axis.

The same distribution as a table
Change Rate Prob. Per point
Below −10% Below 0.7200 9% —
−10% to −5% 0.7200–0.7600 18% 3.53
−5% to −1% 0.7600–0.7920 22% 5.54
−1% to +1% 0.7920–0.8080 12% 5.76
+1% to +5% 0.8080–0.8400 19% 4.77
+5% to +10% 0.8400–0.8800 13% 2.64
Above +10% Above 0.8800 8% —
Total 100%

Why these estimates?

Directional factors follow the quote (Swiss francs per US dollar): “higher” means USD/CHF rises. Each item says whether it is a reported fact or the model’s inference.

What could push USD/CHF higher?

  1. [Reported fact] Reported fact

    [Fact quoted from source 2 with its own date, for example a published inflation figure.] 2

  2. Risk sentiment Model inference

    A broad shift in global risk appetite could favour the US dollar against the Swiss franc before the target date. 3

What could push it lower?

  1. Rate differential Model inference

    If the Swiss National Bank keeps rates higher for longer than the Federal Reserve, the Swiss franc tends to gain against the US dollar. 1

  2. [Reported fact] Reported fact

    [Fact quoted from source 4 with its own date.] 4

Events before the target date

Scheduled dates come from official calendars. Scenarios are hypothetical and have no date.

Scheduled dates

  1. 9 Dec 2026

    US Federal Reserve policy decision

    FOMC meeting 8–9 Dec; statement at 2:00 p.m. ET. Federal Reserve calendar

    Confirmed date

  2. 17 Dec 2026

    ECB monetary policy meeting

    Decision followed by a press conference. ECB meeting calendar

    Confirmed date

  3. 26–27 Jan 2027

    US Federal Reserve meeting

    Listed as tentative by third-party calendars; not yet confirmed on the Federal Reserve's own calendar.

    Tentative date

  4. 4 Feb 2027

    Next ECB monetary policy meeting

    Decision followed by a press conference. ECB meeting calendar

    Confirmed date

  5. 30 Apr 2027

    Target observation

    ECB reference rate for Friday, 30 Apr settles this forecast.

    Forecast target

Hypothetical scenarios

  • A sudden global risk-off move that shifts demand toward safe-haven currencies.

    Scenario · no date

Prediction-market context

No matching market Related market: none Checked 31 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC

No contract on USD/CHF settles near April 2027, and no related contract was found. Market evidence is left out rather than shown as 0%.

Options-implied (risk-neutral) estimates are a different kind of evidence and are not shown in this version. How sources are matched

What this forecast may miss

  • Moves between fixings. The ECB rate is one daily observation; market rates at other times can differ.
  • Weekend news. Anything after 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC enters only with a new version.
  • Calibration. Very few USD/CHF forecasts have settled; the AI average is uncalibrated.

Forecast versions

Each version keeps its own reference rate and source timestamps. Earlier versions are stored, never overwritten. Shown at ±1%; every version holds all four thresholds.

Stored versions of this forecast
Published Reference rate Down / Within / Up at ±1% Version
31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC 0.8000 · 30 Oct fixing 49% / 11% / 40% Current version · viewing