November 2026 outlook (month-end)
USD/CHF forecast for 30 Nov 2026
Link to this forecast: https://futurenotset.com/forex/usd-chf/forecast/2026-11-30/. This address always means 30 Nov 2026.
- Reference rate
- 0.8000 Swiss francs per US dollar · ECB daily reference rate · frozenCHF per US dollar · frozen
Dates and timesHide dates and times
- Rate observed
- Friday, 30 Oct 2026 · ECB fixing, about 16:00 CET
- Forecast published
- 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · rate 15 h old
- Target
- 30 Nov 2026 · settles on the ECB rate for Monday, 30 Nov
Reference rate from 30 Oct. The ECB publishes no reference rates at weekends or on TARGET holidays. The outcome uses the ECB fixing of Monday, 30 Nov 2026.
Default for currency pairs: 1%
Research estimate AI average · uncalibrated
AI average · uncalibrated Two research runs, by OpenAI and Claude. Each one searches news, central-bank and market data, cites what it used, then estimates. Weighted equally. ECB reference rate for 30 Nov 2026.
Down 1% or more
36%
0.7920 or lower
Between −1% and +1%
27%
0.7920 to 0.8080
Up 1% or more
37%
0.8080 or higher
Down 1% or more
0.7920 or lower
36%
Between −1% and +1%
0.7920 to 0.8080
27%
Up 1% or more
0.8080 or higher
37%
Down 5% or more
5%
0.7600 or lower
Between −5% and +5%
89%
0.7600 to 0.8400
Up 5% or more
6%
0.8400 or higher
Down 5% or more
0.7600 or lower
5%
Between −5% and +5%
0.7600 to 0.8400
89%
Up 5% or more
0.8400 or higher
6%
Down 10% or more
0.2%
0.7200 or lower
Between −10% and +10%
99.4%
0.7200 to 0.8800
Up 10% or more
0.4%
0.8800 or higher
Down 10% or more
0.7200 or lower
0.2%
Between −10% and +10%
0.7200 to 0.8800
99.4%
Up 10% or more
0.8800 or higher
0.4%
Down 50% or more
<0.1%
0.4000 or lower
Between −50% and +50%
100.0%
0.4000 to 1.2000
Up 50% or more
0.0%
1.2000 or higher
Down 50% or more
0.4000 or lower
<0.1%
Between −50% and +50%
0.4000 to 1.2000
100.0%
Up 50% or more
1.2000 or higher
0.0%
How boundaries are counted
Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.7920 counts as Down.
Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8080 counts as Up.
Within is strictly between 0.7920 and 0.8080. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.
Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.7600 counts as Down.
Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8400 counts as Up.
Within is strictly between 0.7600 and 0.8400. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.
Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.7200 counts as Down.
Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.8800 counts as Up.
Within is strictly between 0.7200 and 0.8800. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.
Down includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 0.4000 counts as Down.
Up includes its boundary: a rate of exactly 1.2000 counts as Up.
Within is strictly between 0.4000 and 1.2000. The three outcomes cannot overlap and always sum to 100%.
The rate on the target date, not whether a level is touched before it. Probability estimates, not guarantees. Methodology and limitations.
Rate so far and forecast range
USD/CHF since 31 Jul, then where the research estimate puts the rate on 30 Nov 2026.
- Middle estimate
- 0.8003
- Even odds above or below
- 50% chance between
- 0.7847 – 0.8165
- 25th to 75th percentile
- 80% chance between
- 0.7665 – 0.8350
- 10th to 90th percentile
Chart data as a table
| Percentile | Rate |
|---|---|
| 10th | 0.7665 |
| 25th | 0.7847 |
| Median (50th) | 0.8003 |
| 75th | 0.8165 |
| 90th | 0.8350 |
| Date | Rate |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 0.8100 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | 0.8090 |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 0.7850 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.8000 |
All movement thresholds
AI average for the ECB reference rate for Monday, 30 Nov 2026, from the 0.8000 reference. Rates are Swiss francs per US dollar. All four thresholds are on this page; choosing one updates the panels above.
| ThresholdMove | Down | Within | Up | Selection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ±1% | 36% Down 1% or more: 0.7920 or lower | 27% Between −1% and +1%: 0.7920 to 0.8080 | 37% Up 1% or more: 0.8080 or higher | Selected Show ±1% |
| ±5% | 5% Down 5% or more: 0.7600 or lower | 89% Between −5% and +5%: 0.7600 to 0.8400 | 6% Up 5% or more: 0.8400 or higher | Selected Show ±5% |
| ±10% | 0.2% Down 10% or more: 0.7200 or lower | 99.4% Between −10% and +10%: 0.7200 to 0.8800 | 0.4% Up 10% or more: 0.8800 or higher | Selected Show ±10% |
| ±50% | <0.1% Down 50% or more: 0.4000 or lower | 100.0% Between −50% and +50%: 0.4000 to 1.2000 | 0.0% Up 50% or more: 1.2000 or higher | Selected Show ±50% |
Within ranges exclude both boundaries. Wider thresholds always have a larger Within share: the estimates nest consistently. A 50% move in a major currency pair is extremely unlikely; the estimate is shown rather than hidden so all four thresholds stay comparable. Values shown as “<0.1%” or “>99.9%” are bounds; the underlying values sum to 100%.
Compare sources
Selected threshold ±1%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8000 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 18 percentage points at ±1%.
Selected threshold ±5%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8000 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 6 percentage points at ±5%.
Selected threshold ±10%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8000 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude differ by up to 1 percentage point at ±10%.
Selected threshold ±50%. Every source uses the same event and the same 0.8000 reference, and is listed in Down / Within / Up order. OpenAI and Claude give the same estimates at ±50%.
| Source | Down | Within | Up | Updated | Coverage | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI average Average · uncalibrated | 36% | 27% | 37% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC | Fresh2 of 2 models | Details: AI average — method |
| OpenAI Research run | 28% | 26% | 46% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC | Fresh4 cited sources | Details: OpenAI — run details |
| Claude Research run | 44% | 28% | 28% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC | Fresh4 cited sources | Details: Claude — run details |
| Statistical reference Synthetic fixture | 33% | 33% | 34% | 30 Oct 2026 fixing | FreshECB rate history | Details: Statistical reference — method |
| AI average Average · uncalibrated | 5% | 89% | 6% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC | Fresh2 of 2 models | Details: AI average — method |
| OpenAI Research run | 3% | 88% | 9% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC | Fresh4 cited sources | Details: OpenAI — run details |
| Claude Research run | 6% | 91% | 3% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC | Fresh4 cited sources | Details: Claude — run details |
| Statistical reference Synthetic fixture | 1% | 97% | 2% | 30 Oct 2026 fixing | FreshECB rate history | Details: Statistical reference — method |
| AI average Average · uncalibrated | 0.2% | 99.4% | 0.4% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC | Fresh2 of 2 models | Details: AI average — method |
| OpenAI Research run | 0.2% | 99.1% | 0.7% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC | Fresh4 cited sources | Details: OpenAI — run details |
| Claude Research run | 0.2% | 99.6% | 0.2% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC | Fresh4 cited sources | Details: Claude — run details |
| Statistical reference Synthetic fixture | <0.1% | >99.9% | <0.1% | 30 Oct 2026 fixing | FreshECB rate history | Details: Statistical reference — method |
| AI average Average · uncalibrated | <0.1% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC | Fresh2 of 2 models | Details: AI average — method |
| OpenAI Research run | <0.1% | >99.9% | <0.1% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC | Fresh4 cited sources | Details: OpenAI — run details |
| Claude Research run | <0.1% | >99.9% | <0.1% | 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC | Fresh4 cited sources | Details: Claude — run details |
| Statistical reference Synthetic fixture | <0.1% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 30 Oct 2026 fixing | FreshECB rate history | Details: Statistical reference — method |
AI average — method
Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.
Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.
OpenAI — run details
Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Claude — run details
Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Statistical reference — method
Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 2.3% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).
A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.
AI average
Average · uncalibrated- Down
- 36%
- Within
- 27%
- Up
- 37%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models
Details: AI average — method
Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.
Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.
OpenAI
Research run- Down
- 28%
- Within
- 26%
- Up
- 46%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources
Details: OpenAI — run details
Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Claude
Research run- Down
- 44%
- Within
- 28%
- Up
- 28%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources
Details: Claude — run details
Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Statistical reference
Synthetic fixture- Down
- 33%
- Within
- 33%
- Up
- 34%
Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history
Details: Statistical reference — method
Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 2.3% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).
A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.
Prediction markets
No matching marketNo contract on USD/CHF settles near November 2026, and no related contract was found.
AI average
Average · uncalibrated- Down
- 5%
- Within
- 89%
- Up
- 6%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models
Details: AI average — method
Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.
Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.
OpenAI
Research run- Down
- 3%
- Within
- 88%
- Up
- 9%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources
Details: OpenAI — run details
Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Claude
Research run- Down
- 6%
- Within
- 91%
- Up
- 3%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources
Details: Claude — run details
Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Statistical reference
Synthetic fixture- Down
- 1%
- Within
- 97%
- Up
- 2%
Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history
Details: Statistical reference — method
Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 2.3% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).
A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.
Prediction markets
No matching marketNo contract on USD/CHF settles near November 2026, and no related contract was found.
AI average
Average · uncalibrated- Down
- 0.2%
- Within
- 99.4%
- Up
- 0.4%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models
Details: AI average — method
Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.
Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.
OpenAI
Research run- Down
- 0.2%
- Within
- 99.1%
- Up
- 0.7%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources
Details: OpenAI — run details
Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Claude
Research run- Down
- 0.2%
- Within
- 99.6%
- Up
- 0.2%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources
Details: Claude — run details
Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Statistical reference
Synthetic fixture- Down
- <0.1%
- Within
- >99.9%
- Up
- <0.1%
Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history
Details: Statistical reference — method
Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 2.3% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).
A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.
Prediction markets
No matching marketNo contract on USD/CHF settles near November 2026, and no related contract was found.
AI average
Average · uncalibrated- Down
- <0.1%
- Within
- 100.0%
- Up
- 0.0%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC · 2 of 2 models
Details: AI average — method
Simple mean of the OpenAI and Claude probabilities for each outcome, rounded so the three sum to 100. Uncalibrated: it has not been adjusted using settled outcomes.
Both models receive the same evidence pack and reference price, so their estimates are not statistically independent. Averaging two runs does not double the information.
OpenAI
Research run- Down
- <0.1%
- Within
- >99.9%
- Up
- <0.1%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · 4 cited sources
Details: OpenAI — run details
Model: [OpenAI model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Claude
Research run- Down
- <0.1%
- Within
- >99.9%
- Up
- <0.1%
Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · 4 cited sources
Details: Claude — run details
Model: [Anthropic model ID from run metadata] · Run: 31 Oct 2026, 06:10 UTC · Evidence pack: [pack ID]
Returns a probability distribution over 26 return bins; all four thresholds are computed from it. Checked to sum to 100 and to nest across thresholds before publishing.
Statistical reference
Synthetic fixture- Down
- <0.1%
- Within
- 100.0%
- Up
- 0.0%
Updated 30 Oct 2026 fixing · ECB rate history
Details: Statistical reference — method
Synthetic fixture: lognormal rate at the target with zero median change and 2.3% volatility over the horizon (about 8% a year).
A simple baseline from price history. It is not a market-implied (risk-neutral) estimate, and no claim is made that it is more or less accurate than the models.
Prediction markets
No matching marketNo contract on USD/CHF settles near November 2026, and no related contract was found.
Distribution of possible moves
AI average, built from the threshold probabilities and spread evenly within each band. Heights show probability per percentage point.
Histogram of the bands listed in the table beside: probability per percentage point for each band between −10% and +10%.
Hover a band for its price range and probability. Not drawn: 0.2% of outcomes below −10% (0.7200) and 0.4% above +10% (0.8800). The ±50% boundaries (0.4000 and 1.2000) are far outside this axis.
| Change | Rate | Prob. | Per point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below −10% | Below 0.7200 | 0.2% | — |
| −10% to −5% | 0.7200–0.7600 | 5% | 0.91 |
| −5% to −1% | 0.7600–0.7920 | 31% | 7.79 |
| −1% to +1% | 0.7920–0.8080 | 27% | 13.48 |
| +1% to +5% | 0.8080–0.8400 | 31% | 7.80 |
| +5% to +10% | 0.8400–0.8800 | 6% | 1.10 |
| Above +10% | Above 0.8800 | 0.4% | — |
| Total | 100% |
Why these estimates?
Directional factors follow the quote (Swiss francs per US dollar): “higher” means USD/CHF rises. Each item says whether it is a reported fact or the model’s inference.
What could push USD/CHF higher?
Events before the target date
Scheduled dates come from official calendars. Scenarios are hypothetical and have no date.
Confirmed dates
-
30 Nov 2026
Target observation
ECB reference rate for Monday, 30 Nov settles this forecast.
Forecast target -
9 Dec 2026
US Federal Reserve policy decision
After the target date, so it cannot affect this outcome. Federal Reserve calendar
After target
Hypothetical scenarios
-
A sudden global risk-off move that shifts demand toward safe-haven currencies.
Scenario · no date
Prediction-market context
No contract on USD/CHF settles near November 2026, and no related contract was found. Market evidence is left out rather than shown as 0%.
Options-implied (risk-neutral) estimates are a different kind of evidence and are not shown in this version. How sources are matched
What this forecast may miss
- Moves between fixings. The ECB rate is one daily observation; market rates at other times can differ.
- Weekend news. Anything after 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC enters only with a new version.
- Calibration. Very few USD/CHF forecasts have settled; the AI average is uncalibrated.
Forecast versions
Each version keeps its own reference rate and source timestamps. Earlier versions are stored, never overwritten. Shown at ±1%; every version holds all four thresholds.
| Published | Reference rate | Down / Within / Up at ±1% | Version |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC | 0.8000 · 30 Oct fixing | 36% / 27% / 37% | Current version · viewing |